IBM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 36 trades in period
+14.23%
Last Year Return
$16,413.38
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,368.61
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
35
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
38.7/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 34.9
30-Day Momentum
0
-6.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-35 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,658
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$14,368.61
Current Value
$16,413.38
Period P&L
$2,044.76
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
18 /
18
Best Trade
+6.54%
Worst Trade
-9.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.57%
Avg Hold Time
7.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,147,487.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,044.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,044.76
Gross Return
+14.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.23%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,368.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 3:25pm ET | $240.06 | 58 | $13,923.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2025 12:40pm ET | $252.10 | 58 | $14,621.80 | $14,645.86 |
+$698.32 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 3:45pm ET | $254.74 | 57 | $14,520.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $245.17 | 57 | $13,974.41 | $14,099.88 |
$-545.98 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2025 9:50am ET | $256.66 | 54 | $13,859.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $269.50 | 54 | $14,553.00 | $14,793.24 |
+$693.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 2:10pm ET | $275.37 | 53 | $14,594.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 3:50pm ET | $289.27 | 53 | $15,331.31 | $15,529.94 |
+$736.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $293.18 | 52 | $15,245.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 9:55am ET | $284.14 | 52 | $14,775.28 | $15,059.86 |
$-470.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 11:20am ET | $285.74 | 52 | $14,858.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $258.76 | 52 | $13,455.26 | $13,656.64 |
$-1,403.22 (-9.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 3:25pm ET | $258.97 | 52 | $13,466.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $249.90 | 52 | $12,994.80 | $13,185.00 |
$-471.64 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 1:55pm ET | $250.57 | 52 | $13,029.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 8, 2025 2:25pm ET | $242.88 | 52 | $12,629.76 | $12,785.12 |
$-399.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2025 2:25pm ET | $235.03 | 54 | $12,691.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 11:15am ET | $246.93 | 54 | $13,334.22 | $13,427.72 |
+$642.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $246.28 | 54 | $13,299.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2025 1:00pm ET | $258.84 | 54 | $13,977.36 | $14,105.86 |
+$678.14 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2025 1:20pm ET | $256.42 | 55 | $14,103.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $269.96 | 55 | $14,847.80 | $14,850.56 |
+$744.70 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 11:00am ET | $269.73 | 55 | $14,835.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 11:30am ET | $283.34 | 55 | $15,583.70 | $15,599.11 |
+$748.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 3:45pm ET | $286.39 | 54 | $15,465.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2025 10:55am ET | $300.79 | 54 | $16,242.66 | $16,376.71 |
+$777.60 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 12:15pm ET | $289.72 | 56 | $16,224.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 2:45pm ET | $280.80 | 56 | $15,724.72 | $15,877.11 |
$-499.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:40am ET | $272.83 | 58 | $15,823.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $286.70 | 58 | $16,628.60 | $16,681.86 |
+$804.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 1:25pm ET | $305.63 | 54 | $16,503.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $296.42 | 54 | $16,006.41 | $16,184.43 |
$-497.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET | $307.79 | 52 | $16,005.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $324.07 | 52 | $16,851.41 | $17,030.72 |
+$846.28 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $311.91 | 54 | $16,843.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $299.90 | 54 | $16,194.47 | $16,382.05 |
$-648.67 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $303.14 | 54 | $16,369.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $293.15 | 54 | $15,830.32 | $15,842.80 |
$-539.24 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $289.66 | 54 | $15,641.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET | $304.19 | 54 | $16,425.99 | $16,627.17 |
+$784.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $301.85 | 55 | $16,601.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:20am ET | $304.13 | 55 | $16,726.88 | $16,752.49 |
+$125.32 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 3:50pm ET | $305.82 | 54 | $16,514.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 12:45pm ET | $296.28 | 54 | $15,998.85 | $16,237.06 |
$-515.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $289.68 | 56 | $16,221.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $306.37 | 56 | $17,156.44 | $17,171.70 |
+$934.64 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.39 | 56 | $16,933.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $293.00 | 56 | $16,408.00 | $16,645.86 |
$-525.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $298.12 | 55 | $16,396.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.36 | 55 | $17,454.80 | $17,704.33 |
+$1,058.48 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $314.15 | 56 | $17,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $302.85 | 56 | $16,959.60 | $17,071.53 |
$-632.80 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $284.02 | 60 | $17,041.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET | $298.30 | 60 | $17,898.00 | $17,928.03 |
+$856.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $294.99 | 60 | $17,699.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $285.99 | 60 | $17,159.40 | $17,387.73 |
$-540.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $259.47 | 67 | $17,384.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $251.04 | 67 | $16,819.68 | $16,822.92 |
$-564.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $231.09 | 72 | $16,638.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $243.00 | 72 | $17,496.00 | $17,680.44 |
+$857.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $235.97 | 74 | $17,461.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $248.72 | 74 | $18,405.28 | $18,623.94 |
+$943.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $253.59 | 73 | $18,512.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $245.70 | 73 | $17,936.10 | $18,047.97 |
$-575.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $246.75 | 73 | $18,012.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $238.76 | 73 | $17,429.48 | $17,464.52 |
$-583.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $238.40 | 73 | $17,403.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $231.16 | 73 | $16,874.68 | $16,935.64 |
$-528.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:30am ET | $239.79 | 70 | $16,784.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.46 | 70 | $17,882.20 | $18,032.89 |
+$1,097.25 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $253.63 | 71 | $18,007.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.82 | 71 | $16,388.22 | $16,413.38 |
$-1,619.51 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,413.38
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,413.38
Total Return:
+64.13%