Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:08:49

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
5.0/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 42.2/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 34.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
23,067
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
262 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$9,691.67
Current Value
$14,771.89
Period P&L
$5,080.25
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.57

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
13 / 7
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
-4.38%
Avg Trade Return
+2.14%
Avg Hold Time
16.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$486,961.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,080.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,080.25
Gross Return
+52.42%
Net Return (after fees)
+52.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 262 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,691.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 11:05am ET $157.34 62 $9,754.77
🔴 SELL May 13, 2025 9:30am ET $150.44 62 $9,327.28 $9,408.94 $-427.49
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 14, 2025 9:30am ET $148.24 63 $9,338.81
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2025 10:00am ET $155.75 63 $9,812.48 $9,882.61 +$473.67
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2025 3:20pm ET $155.52 63 $9,797.76
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $150.80 63 $9,500.40 $9,585.25 $-297.36
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 2:40pm ET $150.40 63 $9,475.20
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2025 10:05am ET $158.22 63 $9,967.86 $10,077.91 +$492.66
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 11, 2025 10:10am ET $156.01 64 $9,984.64
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2025 9:30am ET $164.22 64 $10,510.08 $10,603.35 +$525.44
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2025 9:50am ET $162.64 65 $10,571.60
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2025 3:45pm ET $170.82 65 $11,103.30 $11,135.05 +$531.70
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2025 2:40pm ET $171.08 65 $11,120.34
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 9:45am ET $180.38 65 $11,724.70 $11,739.41 +$604.36
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 2:55pm ET $179.48 65 $11,665.88
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2025 3:35pm ET $174.05 65 $11,313.25 $11,386.79 $-352.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
28d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2025 3:35pm ET $176.04 64 $11,266.56
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 2:00pm ET $185.10 64 $11,846.40 $11,966.63 +$579.84
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 10:05am ET $184.86 64 $11,831.04
🔴 SELL Oct 20, 2025 1:55pm ET $194.14 64 $12,424.96 $12,560.55 +$593.92
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 3:15pm ET $192.71 65 $12,526.15
🔴 SELL Oct 28, 2025 1:50pm ET $186.82 65 $12,143.30 $12,177.70 $-382.85
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 31, 2025 9:30am ET $187.10 65 $12,161.18
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 1:50pm ET $196.56 65 $12,776.40 $12,792.92 +$615.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 3:45pm ET $198.51 64 $12,704.32
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $208.74 64 $13,359.36 $13,447.96 +$655.04
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 12:15pm ET $210.43 63 $13,257.09
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET $203.90 63 $12,845.70 $13,036.57 $-411.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:55am ET $205.29 63 $12,933.26
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:50am ET $215.65 63 $13,585.95 $13,689.26 +$652.69
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET $216.17 63 $13,618.71
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $227.24 63 $14,315.81 $14,386.35 +$697.10
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $227.69 63 $14,344.47
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:55am ET $239.13 63 $15,065.19 $15,107.07 +$720.72
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $238.39 63 $15,018.57
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $238.63 63 $15,033.69 $15,122.19 +$15.12
(+0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $242.40 62 $15,028.80
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $237.93 62 $14,751.66 $14,845.05 $-277.14
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $235.71 62 $14,614.02
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $234.53 62 $14,540.86 $14,771.89 $-73.16
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,771.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,771.89
Total Return: +47.72%
Back to Marcus Reversal