LLY Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 45 trades in period
-11.16%
Last Year Return
$11,503.26
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$12,947.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
17
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
17.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 17.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-11.0%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,627
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,947.83
Current Value
$11,503.26
Period P&L
$-1,444.58
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
18 /
27
Best Trade
+6.61%
Worst Trade
-12.77%
Avg Trade Return
-0.12%
Avg Hold Time
6.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,059,035.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,444.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,444.58
Gross Return
-11.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,947.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $808.98 | 15 | $12,134.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 12:45pm ET | $784.45 | 15 | $11,766.75 | $12,375.00 |
$-367.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 2:35pm ET | $776.95 | 15 | $11,654.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $748.19 | 15 | $11,222.85 | $11,943.60 |
$-431.40 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 9, 2025 12:50pm ET | $750.99 | 15 | $11,264.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 10:05am ET | $724.36 | 15 | $10,865.40 | $11,544.15 |
$-399.45 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 12:10pm ET | $747.34 | 15 | $11,210.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $724.49 | 15 | $10,867.31 | $11,201.36 |
$-342.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 3:50pm ET | $732.62 | 15 | $10,989.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2025 12:00pm ET | $710.10 | 15 | $10,651.50 | $10,863.56 |
$-337.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 3:00pm ET | $726.82 | 14 | $10,175.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $764.44 | 14 | $10,702.16 | $11,390.24 |
+$526.68 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $754.69 | 15 | $11,320.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $794.17 | 15 | $11,912.48 | $11,982.36 |
+$592.12 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 11:55am ET | $814.72 | 14 | $11,406.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $785.58 | 14 | $10,998.12 | $11,574.40 |
$-407.96 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $768.74 | 15 | $11,531.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $769.18 | 15 | $11,537.70 | $11,581.00 |
+$6.60 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 2:45pm ET | $805.43 | 14 | $11,275.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $760.63 | 14 | $10,648.82 | $10,953.84 |
$-627.17 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 11:30am ET | $766.64 | 14 | $10,733.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 2:55pm ET | $743.16 | 14 | $10,404.24 | $10,625.08 |
$-328.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 10:40am ET | $758.00 | 14 | $10,611.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $661.20 | 14 | $9,256.80 | $9,269.95 |
$-1,355.13 (-12.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 10:40am ET | $628.79 | 14 | $8,802.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 11:55am ET | $660.54 | 14 | $9,247.56 | $9,714.52 |
+$444.57 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2025 3:40pm ET | $700.48 | 13 | $9,106.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2025 3:50pm ET | $735.68 | 13 | $9,563.87 | $10,172.21 |
+$457.69 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2025 11:00am ET | $732.47 | 13 | $9,522.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2025 1:00pm ET | $769.66 | 13 | $10,005.58 | $10,655.62 |
+$483.41 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 1:00pm ET | $763.19 | 13 | $9,921.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $737.18 | 13 | $9,583.34 | $10,317.49 |
$-338.13 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $731.32 | 14 | $10,238.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $779.65 | 14 | $10,915.14 | $10,994.15 |
+$676.66 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $815.21 | 13 | $10,597.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 9:55am ET | $857.74 | 13 | $11,150.62 | $11,547.04 |
+$552.89 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $850.37 | 13 | $11,054.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 13, 2025 1:40pm ET | $823.90 | 13 | $10,710.70 | $11,202.91 |
$-344.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 2:55pm ET | $812.75 | 13 | $10,565.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 31, 2025 11:50am ET | $854.08 | 13 | $11,103.04 | $11,740.21 |
+$537.30 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $886.85 | 13 | $11,529.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 9:45am ET | $932.30 | 13 | $12,119.90 | $12,331.06 |
+$590.85 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 1:10pm ET | $922.60 | 13 | $11,993.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $976.57 | 13 | $12,695.41 | $13,032.67 |
+$701.61 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 2:05pm ET | $990.35 | 13 | $12,874.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:50am ET | $1,041.51 | 13 | $13,539.57 | $13,697.68 |
+$665.02 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $1,041.66 | 13 | $13,541.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET | $1,094.13 | 13 | $14,223.63 | $14,379.73 |
+$682.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,090.65 | 13 | $14,178.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 2:25pm ET | $1,056.63 | 13 | $13,736.19 | $13,937.53 |
$-442.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 2:30pm ET | $1,048.93 | 13 | $13,636.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $1,017.37 | 13 | $13,225.81 | $13,527.32 |
$-410.21 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:55am ET | $1,011.16 | 13 | $13,145.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $979.79 | 13 | $12,737.27 | $13,119.51 |
$-407.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 11:50am ET | $1,015.34 | 12 | $12,184.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $1,075.03 | 12 | $12,900.36 | $13,835.79 |
+$716.28 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $1,064.71 | 12 | $12,776.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,125.53 | 12 | $13,506.36 | $14,565.63 |
+$729.84 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,083.91 | 13 | $14,090.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,046.63 | 13 | $13,606.19 | $14,080.99 |
$-484.64 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,044.13 | 13 | $13,573.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,012.56 | 13 | $13,163.28 | $13,670.64 |
$-410.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,024.40 | 13 | $13,317.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,090.07 | 13 | $14,170.91 | $14,524.35 |
+$853.71 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,048.31 | 13 | $13,628.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,014.87 | 13 | $13,193.31 | $14,089.63 |
$-434.72 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,058.96 | 13 | $13,766.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,046.36 | 13 | $13,602.68 | $13,925.77 |
$-163.86 (-1.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,052.73 | 13 | $13,685.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,020.78 | 13 | $13,270.14 | $13,510.36 |
$-415.41 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,013.41 | 13 | $13,174.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $983.00 | 13 | $12,779.00 | $13,115.09 |
$-395.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $994.52 | 13 | $12,928.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $963.00 | 13 | $12,519.00 | $12,705.33 |
$-409.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $911.70 | 13 | $11,852.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $882.85 | 13 | $11,477.05 | $12,330.28 |
$-375.05 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:05am ET | $909.56 | 13 | $11,824.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $955.52 | 13 | $12,421.76 | $12,927.76 |
+$597.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $934.46 | 13 | $12,147.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $902.29 | 13 | $11,729.77 | $12,509.55 |
$-418.21 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $956.07 | 13 | $12,428.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $921.77 | 13 | $11,983.01 | $12,063.65 |
$-445.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $915.33 | 13 | $11,899.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $884.98 | 13 | $11,504.74 | $11,669.10 |
$-394.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $914.31 | 12 | $10,971.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $882.69 | 12 | $10,592.23 | $11,289.61 |
$-379.49 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $881.84 | 12 | $10,582.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $855.30 | 12 | $10,263.66 | $10,971.19 |
$-318.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $935.50 | 11 | $10,290.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $983.87 | 11 | $10,822.57 | $11,503.26 |
+$532.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,503.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,503.26
Total Return:
+15.03%