Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:21:37

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 16.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 14.6

30-Day Momentum

0
-5.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
22,658
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
259 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,840.71
Current Value
$10,518.30
Period P&L
$-322.41
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
8 / 12
Best Trade
+5.25%
Worst Trade
-4.10%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
17.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$415,191.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-322.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-322.41
Gross Return
-2.97%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.97%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 259 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,840.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2025 12:20pm ET $316.59 34 $10,763.95
🔴 SELL May 14, 2025 9:35am ET $306.97 34 $10,436.98 $10,479.95 $-326.97
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 15, 2025 3:50pm ET $314.03 33 $10,362.99
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET $301.14 33 $9,937.75 $10,054.71 $-425.24
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
24.7d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET $301.63 33 $9,953.79
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2025 2:10pm ET $292.49 33 $9,652.17 $9,753.09 $-301.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2025 2:10pm ET $289.50 33 $9,553.54
🔴 SELL Jul 18, 2025 2:10pm ET $297.17 33 $9,806.61 $10,006.16 +$253.07
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2025 3:05pm ET $296.73 33 $9,791.93
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2025 9:45am ET $312.29 33 $10,305.57 $10,519.81 +$513.65
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
28.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2025 12:00pm ET $313.96 33 $10,360.68
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2025 9:35am ET $304.14 33 $10,036.62 $10,195.75 $-324.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2025 12:15pm ET $303.76 33 $10,023.92
🔴 SELL Oct 7, 2025 9:45am ET $294.52 33 $9,719.16 $9,890.99 $-304.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 8, 2025 9:50am ET $294.82 33 $9,728.90
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 10:20am ET $309.93 33 $10,227.69 $10,389.79 +$498.80
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
9 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 10:20am ET $307.83 33 $10,158.39
🔴 SELL Oct 31, 2025 9:45am ET $298.53 33 $9,851.49 $10,082.89 $-306.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 9:45am ET $295.75 34 $10,055.50
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET $310.68 34 $10,562.95 $10,590.34 +$507.45
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 1:10pm ET $310.91 34 $10,570.94
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 9:35am ET $301.40 34 $10,247.53 $10,266.93 $-323.41
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:45am ET $304.21 33 $10,038.77
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 3:50pm ET $319.43 33 $10,541.19 $10,769.35 +$502.43
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 3:50pm ET $314.54 34 $10,694.19
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $302.95 34 $10,300.13 $10,375.29 $-394.06
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $301.21 34 $10,241.14
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET $316.59 34 $10,763.89 $10,898.04 +$522.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
24.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET $311.68 34 $10,596.95
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $327.38 34 $11,130.75 $11,431.84 +$533.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:40pm ET $326.12 35 $11,414.20
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $325.51 35 $11,392.85 $11,410.49 $-21.35
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET $326.31 34 $11,094.43
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET $316.46 34 $10,759.64 $11,075.70 $-334.79
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $309.45 35 $10,830.75
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $312.27 35 $10,929.45 $11,174.40 +$98.70
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $303.68 36 $10,932.66
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:10am ET $294.46 36 $10,600.74 $10,842.48 $-331.92
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $293.68 36 $10,572.48
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $284.67 36 $10,248.30 $10,518.30 $-324.18
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,518.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$518.30
Total Return: +5.18%
Back to Marcus Reversal