Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MDT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MDT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 24 trades in period

+8.30%
Last Year Return
$11,361.04
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,490.63
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:21:21

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 20.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 18.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,396
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
256 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,490.63
Current Value
$11,361.04
Period P&L
$870.39
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
12 / 12
Best Trade
+6.42%
Worst Trade
-3.41%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
14.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$588,281.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$870.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$870.39
Gross Return
+8.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 256 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,490.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2025 12:05pm ET $83.42 126 $10,510.92 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2025 12:05pm ET $84.52 126 $10,649.52 $10,677.12 +$138.60
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY May 15, 2025 12:30pm ET $85.22 125 $10,652.49 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2025 9:30am ET $82.31 125 $10,288.75 $10,313.38 $-363.74
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
3 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 9:30am ET $80.43 128 $10,294.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2025 10:15am ET $84.45 128 $10,809.60 $10,828.58 +$515.20
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2025 11:25am ET $85.75 126 $10,804.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET $87.96 126 $11,082.33 $11,106.41 +$277.83
(+2.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
32.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2025 12:55pm ET $88.42 125 $11,051.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 25, 2025 1:45pm ET $92.84 125 $11,605.00 $11,659.54 +$553.13
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2025 1:50pm ET $92.25 126 $11,623.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET $89.41 126 $11,265.03 $11,301.07 $-358.47
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 12:10pm ET $89.58 126 $11,287.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2025 9:50am ET $94.08 126 $11,854.08 $11,868.07 +$567.00
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2025 9:50am ET $92.73 127 $11,776.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET $94.70 127 $12,026.90 $12,118.18 +$250.11
(+2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2025 9:30am ET $94.60 128 $12,108.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET $95.62 128 $12,239.36 $12,248.74 +$130.56
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 24, 2025 10:40am ET $93.76 130 $12,188.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 30, 2025 2:55pm ET $90.94 130 $11,821.55 $11,881.49 $-367.25
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET $89.99 132 $11,879.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET $94.87 132 $12,522.84 $12,525.05 +$643.56
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 1:25pm ET $95.81 130 $12,454.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $101.96 130 $13,254.80 $13,324.89 +$799.84
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET $100.83 132 $13,308.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 9:45am ET $105.94 132 $13,984.08 $14,000.07 +$675.18
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 11:40am ET $104.89 133 $13,950.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 1:30pm ET $101.74 133 $13,531.42 $13,581.12 $-418.95
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:30am ET $102.17 132 $13,485.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 1:35pm ET $99.09 132 $13,079.55 $13,174.89 $-406.23
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $97.88 134 $13,115.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $98.52 134 $13,201.68 $13,260.98 +$86.09
(+0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET $98.61 134 $13,213.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET $103.98 134 $13,933.32 $13,981.23 +$720.25
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $103.11 135 $13,919.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $101.54 135 $13,708.57 $13,769.96 $-211.28
(-1.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $95.91 143 $13,715.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET $92.82 143 $13,273.97 $13,328.80 $-441.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET $90.17 147 $13,254.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:25am ET $87.43 147 $12,852.21 $12,926.02 $-402.78
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $87.87 147 $12,916.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $84.97 147 $12,491.32 $12,500.45 $-425.57
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $86.03 145 $12,474.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.37 145 $12,088.65 $12,114.75 $-385.70
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.12 145 $12,052.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $80.55 145 $11,679.75 $11,742.10 $-372.65
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
24 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $80.06 146 $11,688.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $77.45 146 $11,307.70 $11,361.04 $-381.06
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,361.04
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,361.04
Total Return: +13.61%
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