MRK Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 34 trades in period
+13.33%
Last Year Return
$7,791.77
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$6,875.34
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.92
= 4.1
30-Day Momentum
0
-2.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,397
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$6,875.34
Current Value
$7,791.77
Period P&L
$916.44
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
15 /
19
Best Trade
+8.78%
Worst Trade
-8.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
9.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$484,601.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$916.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$916.44
Gross Return
+13.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,875.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2025 12:15pm ET | $83.10 | 83 | $6,897.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $80.57 | 83 | $6,686.98 | $6,713.99 |
$-210.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 1:55pm ET | $79.09 | 84 | $6,643.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 1:20pm ET | $76.63 | 84 | $6,436.50 | $6,506.93 |
$-207.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $77.76 | 83 | $6,454.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $75.41 | 83 | $6,259.03 | $6,311.88 |
$-195.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2025 12:50pm ET | $73.95 | 85 | $6,285.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 9:35am ET | $77.90 | 85 | $6,621.47 | $6,647.60 |
+$335.72 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2025 1:55pm ET | $77.32 | 85 | $6,572.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 12:45pm ET | $81.26 | 85 | $6,907.10 | $6,982.50 |
+$334.90 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 2:10pm ET | $80.32 | 86 | $6,907.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $77.76 | 86 | $6,687.36 | $6,762.34 |
$-220.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 10:40am ET | $78.76 | 85 | $6,694.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 12:10pm ET | $82.91 | 85 | $7,047.35 | $7,115.09 |
+$352.75 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2025 12:45pm ET | $82.15 | 86 | $7,064.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $79.32 | 86 | $6,821.52 | $6,871.71 |
$-243.38 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 11:00am ET | $80.66 | 85 | $6,856.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 1:20pm ET | $84.71 | 85 | $7,200.35 | $7,215.96 |
+$344.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2025 2:55pm ET | $84.52 | 85 | $7,183.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $77.76 | 85 | $6,609.18 | $6,641.36 |
$-574.60 (-8.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 11:30am ET | $82.59 | 80 | $6,607.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 11:10am ET | $80.01 | 80 | $6,400.40 | $6,434.56 |
$-206.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 10:30am ET | $78.47 | 82 | $6,434.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 10:35am ET | $82.40 | 82 | $6,756.80 | $6,756.82 |
+$322.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2025 12:35pm ET | $82.59 | 81 | $6,689.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2025 10:50am ET | $86.72 | 81 | $7,024.32 | $7,091.35 |
+$334.53 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:50am ET | $86.92 | 81 | $7,040.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2025 10:30am ET | $84.30 | 81 | $6,828.30 | $6,879.13 |
$-212.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2025 10:30am ET | $83.10 | 82 | $6,813.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2025 10:50am ET | $80.60 | 82 | $6,609.19 | $6,674.53 |
$-204.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2025 12:40pm ET | $81.64 | 81 | $6,612.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 10:10am ET | $79.12 | 81 | $6,408.72 | $6,470.41 |
$-204.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 10:50am ET | $77.95 | 83 | $6,469.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 12:30pm ET | $82.08 | 83 | $6,812.73 | $6,813.29 |
+$342.88 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $88.76 | 76 | $6,745.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $85.98 | 76 | $6,534.48 | $6,602.09 |
$-211.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 11:25am ET | $84.49 | 78 | $6,589.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $88.79 | 78 | $6,925.62 | $6,937.88 |
+$335.79 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $91.30 | 75 | $6,847.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $95.99 | 75 | $7,199.36 | $7,289.74 |
+$351.86 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $96.16 | 75 | $7,212.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $101.19 | 75 | $7,588.88 | $7,666.62 |
+$376.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:40pm ET | $105.18 | 72 | $7,572.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 3:50pm ET | $102.02 | 72 | $7,345.08 | $7,439.10 |
$-227.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:45am ET | $101.96 | 72 | $7,341.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $98.34 | 72 | $7,080.48 | $7,178.46 |
$-260.64 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:40am ET | $98.22 | 73 | $7,170.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET | $103.24 | 73 | $7,536.52 | $7,544.92 |
+$366.46 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 10:45am ET | $106.18 | 71 | $7,538.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $111.52 | 71 | $7,917.92 | $7,924.41 |
+$379.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $111.09 | 71 | $7,887.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $107.70 | 71 | $7,646.70 | $7,683.72 |
$-240.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET | $108.67 | 70 | $7,606.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.21 | 70 | $8,274.70 | $8,351.87 |
+$668.15 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET | $118.16 | 70 | $8,271.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $117.45 | 70 | $8,221.27 | $8,301.94 |
$-49.93 (-0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $121.44 | 68 | $8,258.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $117.13 | 68 | $7,964.84 | $8,008.52 |
$-293.42 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $121.44 | 68 | $8,258.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $115.07 | 68 | $7,824.42 | $7,574.68 |
$-433.84 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
33.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.86 | 65 | $7,465.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $120.62 | 65 | $7,840.30 | $7,949.08 |
+$374.40 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $118.73 | 66 | $7,836.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $114.76 | 66 | $7,574.15 | $7,687.05 |
$-262.03 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $112.15 | 68 | $7,626.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $108.22 | 68 | $7,358.96 | $7,419.81 |
$-267.24 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $108.99 | 68 | $7,411.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $114.46 | 68 | $7,783.28 | $7,791.77 |
+$371.96 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,791.77
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,208.23
Total Return:
-22.08%