NVDA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 45 trades in period
+102.33%
Last Year Return
$19,760.88
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,766.61
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.8/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
34.8/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 34.2
30-Day Momentum
55
+14.8%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 83.8
Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
40,952
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,766.61
Current Value
$19,760.88
Period P&L
$9,994.18
Max Drawdown
-43.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
25 /
20
Best Trade
+9.50%
Worst Trade
-4.44%
Avg Trade Return
+1.68%
Avg Hold Time
6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,384,765.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$9,994.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$9,994.18
Gross Return
+102.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+102.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,766.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2025 3:25pm ET | $113.00 | 86 | $9,718.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $121.86 | 86 | $10,479.53 | $10,553.13 |
+$761.53 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 2:10pm ET | $130.00 | 81 | $10,530.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 11:40am ET | $136.61 | 81 | $11,065.18 | $11,088.31 |
+$535.18 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $130.76 | 84 | $10,983.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $143.19 | 84 | $12,027.72 | $12,132.19 |
+$1,043.88 (+9.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $137.17 | 88 | $12,071.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $144.43 | 88 | $12,709.84 | $12,771.00 |
+$638.81 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $142.04 | 89 | $12,641.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $149.87 | 89 | $13,338.43 | $13,468.10 |
+$697.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2025 11:30am ET | $155.11 | 86 | $13,339.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $163.37 | 86 | $14,049.82 | $14,178.89 |
+$710.79 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 11:55am ET | $166.31 | 85 | $14,136.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $175.07 | 85 | $14,880.95 | $14,923.49 |
+$744.60 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 11:00am ET | $177.14 | 84 | $14,879.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $171.82 | 84 | $14,432.88 | $14,476.61 |
$-446.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $176.02 | 82 | $14,433.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $170.22 | 82 | $13,958.04 | $14,001.42 |
$-475.19 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $172.48 | 81 | $13,970.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 11:25am ET | $181.24 | 81 | $14,680.04 | $14,710.58 |
+$709.16 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 1:50pm ET | $180.96 | 81 | $14,657.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $174.89 | 81 | $14,165.69 | $14,218.50 |
$-492.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $170.07 | 83 | $14,115.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 10:20am ET | $164.76 | 83 | $13,674.74 | $13,777.43 |
$-441.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 2:50pm ET | $169.43 | 81 | $13,723.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $178.57 | 81 | $14,463.77 | $14,517.50 |
+$740.06 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 12:40pm ET | $177.45 | 81 | $14,373.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $171.63 | 81 | $13,902.03 | $14,046.48 |
$-471.02 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $175.91 | 79 | $13,896.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 30, 2025 10:25am ET | $184.74 | 79 | $14,594.45 | $14,744.05 |
+$697.56 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 1, 2025 3:15pm ET | $187.28 | 78 | $14,608.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.34 | 78 | $14,144.13 | $14,280.07 |
$-463.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2025 11:30am ET | $181.21 | 78 | $14,134.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $190.53 | 78 | $14,861.34 | $15,007.41 |
+$727.34 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 10:40am ET | $192.81 | 77 | $14,845.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 3:30pm ET | $202.99 | 77 | $15,629.85 | $15,791.27 |
+$783.86 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $201.86 | 78 | $15,744.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 3:55pm ET | $195.15 | 78 | $15,221.70 | $15,268.06 |
$-523.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $184.71 | 82 | $15,146.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $194.33 | 82 | $15,935.32 | $16,057.17 |
+$789.10 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $194.71 | 82 | $15,966.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $188.43 | 82 | $15,451.40 | $15,542.35 |
$-514.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $186.83 | 83 | $15,506.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $181.08 | 83 | $15,029.74 | $15,065.20 |
$-477.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:20am ET | $185.32 | 81 | $15,010.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $195.65 | 81 | $15,847.65 | $15,901.93 |
+$836.73 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:30am ET | $174.83 | 90 | $15,734.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:45pm ET | $183.72 | 90 | $16,534.80 | $16,702.03 |
+$800.10 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:45pm ET | $181.81 | 91 | $16,544.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $173.99 | 91 | $15,833.09 | $15,990.41 |
$-711.62 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:35am ET | $177.84 | 89 | $15,827.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $187.46 | 89 | $16,683.50 | $16,846.21 |
+$855.81 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 3:00pm ET | $184.21 | 91 | $16,762.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.48 | 91 | $16,241.68 | $16,325.24 |
$-520.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $177.24 | 92 | $16,306.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $171.52 | 92 | $15,780.24 | $15,799.40 |
$-525.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 1:20pm ET | $179.84 | 87 | $15,645.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 3:30pm ET | $188.95 | 87 | $16,438.96 | $16,592.72 |
+$793.32 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 11:55am ET | $190.95 | 86 | $16,421.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $185.05 | 86 | $15,914.30 | $16,085.65 |
$-507.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $184.78 | 87 | $16,075.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $179.10 | 87 | $15,581.27 | $15,591.06 |
$-494.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $184.68 | 84 | $15,513.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $194.37 | 84 | $16,326.66 | $16,404.59 |
+$813.53 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $188.43 | 87 | $16,393.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $181.83 | 87 | $15,819.21 | $15,830.39 |
$-574.20 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $174.64 | 90 | $15,717.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $183.46 | 90 | $16,511.85 | $16,624.64 |
+$794.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $191.17 | 86 | $16,440.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $190.19 | 86 | $16,356.34 | $16,540.36 |
$-84.28 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $185.39 | 89 | $16,499.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.82 | 89 | $17,338.98 | $17,379.63 |
+$839.27 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $189.52 | 91 | $17,246.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.11 | 91 | $16,481.01 | $16,614.34 |
$-765.29 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.89 | 94 | $16,439.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $183.87 | 94 | $17,283.31 | $17,457.99 |
+$843.65 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $180.92 | 96 | $17,368.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $175.13 | 96 | $16,812.96 | $16,902.63 |
$-555.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $175.51 | 96 | $16,849.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.68 | 96 | $16,289.76 | $16,342.95 |
$-559.68 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $166.80 | 97 | $16,179.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.74 | 97 | $17,046.78 | $17,210.13 |
+$867.18 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.08 | 100 | $17,208.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.60 | 100 | $18,460.00 | $18,462.12 |
+$1,251.99 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $188.51 | 97 | $18,284.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $198.07 | 97 | $19,212.31 | $19,389.45 |
+$927.33 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $200.12 | 96 | $19,211.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $210.40 | 96 | $20,197.92 | $20,375.86 |
+$986.41 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.21 | 97 | $20,293.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $202.87 | 97 | $19,678.39 | $19,760.88 |
$-614.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,760.88
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,760.88
Total Return:
+97.61%