PANW Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 41 trades in period
+19.86%
Last Year Return
$14,528.29
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$12,121.23
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality
28.8/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 28.3
30-Day Momentum
70
+20.3%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 89.6
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+41 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,347
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,121.23
Current Value
$14,528.29
Period P&L
$2,407.04
Max Drawdown
-29.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
19 /
22
Best Trade
+10.50%
Worst Trade
-9.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
6.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,133,149.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,407.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,407.04
Gross Return
+19.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,121.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2025 1:10pm ET | $190.01 | 64 | $12,160.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $180.69 | 64 | $11,564.16 | $11,740.46 |
$-596.16 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 12:30pm ET | $185.43 | 63 | $11,682.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $195.10 | 63 | $12,291.41 | $12,349.78 |
+$609.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 1:55pm ET | $197.34 | 62 | $12,235.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $200.57 | 62 | $12,435.03 | $12,549.73 |
+$199.95 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
33.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 11:15am ET | $201.38 | 62 | $12,485.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 2:15pm ET | $195.16 | 62 | $12,099.61 | $12,164.09 |
$-385.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2025 2:15pm ET | $187.50 | 64 | $12,000.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2025 11:50am ET | $197.08 | 64 | $12,613.12 | $12,777.21 |
+$613.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 12:40pm ET | $195.40 | 65 | $12,701.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $209.95 | 65 | $13,646.74 | $13,722.95 |
+$945.74 (+7.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $178.94 | 76 | $13,599.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 10:45am ET | $173.50 | 76 | $13,186.00 | $13,309.51 |
$-413.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 1:35pm ET | $174.08 | 76 | $13,230.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2025 2:25pm ET | $168.80 | 76 | $12,828.42 | $12,907.85 |
$-401.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $169.77 | 76 | $12,902.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $187.60 | 76 | $14,257.60 | $14,263.17 |
+$1,355.32 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 2:00pm ET | $184.93 | 77 | $14,239.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2025 2:00pm ET | $194.37 | 77 | $14,966.49 | $14,990.43 |
+$727.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $196.17 | 76 | $14,908.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2025 9:55am ET | $206.33 | 76 | $15,681.08 | $15,762.97 |
+$772.54 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2025 11:00am ET | $205.93 | 76 | $15,650.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $199.62 | 76 | $15,171.12 | $15,283.79 |
$-479.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 12:10pm ET | $203.59 | 75 | $15,269.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $214.61 | 75 | $16,095.75 | $16,110.29 |
+$826.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 9, 2025 10:25am ET | $215.90 | 74 | $15,976.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 2:50pm ET | $209.41 | 74 | $15,496.34 | $15,630.03 |
$-480.26 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $209.34 | 74 | $15,491.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:40am ET | $220.19 | 74 | $16,294.06 | $16,432.93 |
+$802.90 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 3:50pm ET | $221.33 | 74 | $16,378.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 11:30am ET | $214.57 | 74 | $15,878.18 | $15,932.69 |
$-500.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 12:35pm ET | $212.88 | 74 | $15,753.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:00am ET | $205.86 | 74 | $15,233.27 | $15,412.84 |
$-519.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:45pm ET | $205.06 | 75 | $15,379.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:40am ET | $197.55 | 75 | $14,816.25 | $14,849.59 |
$-563.25 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:05am ET | $183.00 | 81 | $14,823.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 11:15am ET | $192.47 | 81 | $15,589.67 | $15,616.26 |
+$766.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $194.16 | 80 | $15,532.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:50am ET | $188.01 | 80 | $15,040.80 | $15,124.26 |
$-492.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 12:50pm ET | $186.21 | 81 | $15,083.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $180.19 | 81 | $14,595.35 | $14,636.60 |
$-487.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $184.63 | 79 | $14,585.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $194.00 | 79 | $15,326.00 | $15,376.83 |
+$740.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $189.70 | 81 | $15,365.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $183.80 | 81 | $14,887.40 | $14,898.52 |
$-478.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $182.83 | 81 | $14,808.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.50 | 81 | $14,296.50 | $14,386.20 |
$-512.32 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $176.21 | 81 | $14,273.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $170.79 | 81 | $13,833.59 | $13,946.77 |
$-439.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $160.99 | 86 | $13,845.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $156.07 | 86 | $13,422.02 | $13,523.22 |
$-423.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $164.81 | 82 | $13,514.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.51 | 82 | $12,177.41 | $12,186.21 |
$-1,337.01 (-9.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.88 | 81 | $12,059.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $156.35 | 81 | $12,663.95 | $12,790.47 |
+$604.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $145.48 | 87 | $12,656.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $140.41 | 87 | $12,216.10 | $12,349.81 |
$-440.66 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $144.45 | 85 | $12,277.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $152.16 | 85 | $12,933.60 | $13,005.50 |
+$655.69 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $161.99 | 80 | $12,959.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $170.23 | 80 | $13,618.00 | $13,664.30 |
+$658.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $168.71 | 80 | $13,497.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $163.60 | 80 | $13,088.00 | $13,255.10 |
$-409.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $164.36 | 80 | $13,148.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 80 | $12,646.40 | $12,752.70 |
$-502.40 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.68 | 81 | $12,610.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.33 | 81 | $11,933.73 | $12,075.95 |
$-676.75 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:05pm ET | $157.37 | 76 | $11,960.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $165.28 | 76 | $12,561.28 | $12,677.11 |
+$601.16 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.73 | 74 | $12,560.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $164.60 | 74 | $12,180.40 | $12,297.49 |
$-379.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $154.29 | 79 | $12,189.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:45pm ET | $162.04 | 79 | $12,801.55 | $12,909.74 |
+$612.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $160.65 | 80 | $12,851.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.40 | 80 | $13,632.00 | $13,690.14 |
+$780.40 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $168.55 | 81 | $13,652.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $177.05 | 81 | $14,341.05 | $14,378.64 |
+$688.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.73 | 82 | $14,245.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $182.50 | 82 | $14,965.00 | $15,097.78 |
+$719.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $182.15 | 82 | $14,935.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $175.20 | 82 | $14,366.40 | $14,528.29 |
$-569.49 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,528.29
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,528.29
Total Return:
+45.28%