VRTX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 33 trades in period
-8.47%
Last Year Return
$11,084.86
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$12,110.59
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.5 neutral
20d Trend
-1.8%
5d Trend
-1.9%
EMA20 Dist
-0.6%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.5/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
16.7/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 15.1
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
20,745
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
254 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$12,110.59
Current Value
$11,084.86
Period P&L
$-1,025.72
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
13 /
20
Best Trade
+6.79%
Worst Trade
-9.10%
Avg Trade Return
-0.24%
Avg Hold Time
9.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$757,967.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,025.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,025.72
Gross Return
-8.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VRTX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 254 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,110.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2025 11:20am ET | $490.65 | 24 | $11,775.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $445.98 | 24 | $10,703.59 | $11,173.93 |
$-1,072.01 (-9.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2025 10:50am ET | $436.59 | 25 | $10,914.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2025 10:35am ET | $422.75 | 25 | $10,568.75 | $10,827.86 |
$-346.06 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 11:55am ET | $433.01 | 25 | $10,825.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 10:10am ET | $454.90 | 25 | $11,372.50 | $11,375.11 |
+$547.25 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:45am ET | $455.58 | 24 | $10,933.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2025 3:50pm ET | $441.55 | 24 | $10,597.20 | $11,038.51 |
$-336.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $440.12 | 25 | $11,003.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2025 9:40am ET | $462.47 | 25 | $11,561.75 | $11,597.26 |
+$558.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2025 11:55am ET | $472.38 | 24 | $11,337.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $457.79 | 24 | $10,986.96 | $11,247.10 |
$-350.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 3:50pm ET | $472.55 | 23 | $10,868.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2025 3:15pm ET | $458.12 | 23 | $10,536.76 | $10,915.21 |
$-331.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $401.31 | 27 | $10,835.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2025 10:25am ET | $385.61 | 27 | $10,411.47 | $10,491.31 |
$-423.90 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2025 1:15pm ET | $384.47 | 27 | $10,380.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 8, 2025 9:45am ET | $372.75 | 27 | $10,064.25 | $10,174.87 |
$-316.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2025 12:55pm ET | $376.24 | 27 | $10,158.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2025 3:15pm ET | $395.14 | 27 | $10,668.65 | $10,685.04 |
+$510.17 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2025 11:30am ET | $390.50 | 27 | $10,543.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $397.50 | 27 | $10,732.50 | $10,874.04 |
+$189.00 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 1:05pm ET | $391.78 | 27 | $10,578.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2025 11:10am ET | $378.78 | 27 | $10,226.93 | $10,522.90 |
$-351.14 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2025 11:25am ET | $377.96 | 27 | $10,204.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 1:45pm ET | $397.41 | 27 | $10,730.07 | $11,048.05 |
+$525.15 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 3:40pm ET | $391.54 | 28 | $10,963.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2025 9:50am ET | $411.26 | 28 | $11,515.14 | $11,600.00 |
+$551.95 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $401.97 | 28 | $11,255.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 21, 2025 10:55am ET | $422.42 | 28 | $11,827.76 | $12,172.60 |
+$572.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 1:25pm ET | $427.72 | 28 | $11,976.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $410.62 | 28 | $11,497.36 | $11,693.80 |
$-478.80 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $416.48 | 28 | $11,661.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:50am ET | $438.15 | 28 | $12,268.20 | $12,300.70 |
+$606.90 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:40pm ET | $439.83 | 27 | $11,875.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:55am ET | $426.56 | 27 | $11,516.99 | $11,942.28 |
$-358.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET | $426.04 | 28 | $11,929.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET | $450.37 | 28 | $12,610.36 | $12,623.52 |
+$681.24 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:10am ET | $455.73 | 27 | $12,304.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 11:30am ET | $442.03 | 27 | $11,934.81 | $12,253.62 |
$-369.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 3:05pm ET | $440.38 | 27 | $11,890.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:05am ET | $463.30 | 27 | $12,509.10 | $12,872.46 |
+$618.84 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:35am ET | $460.01 | 27 | $12,420.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $445.41 | 27 | $12,026.07 | $12,478.39 |
$-394.06 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $466.25 | 26 | $12,122.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $451.45 | 26 | $11,737.70 | $12,093.72 |
$-384.67 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $443.30 | 27 | $11,969.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $466.53 | 27 | $12,596.18 | $12,720.80 |
+$627.07 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $464.25 | 27 | $12,534.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $472.69 | 27 | $12,762.63 | $12,948.68 |
+$227.88 (+1.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
17.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $491.00 | 26 | $12,766.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $475.67 | 26 | $12,367.29 | $12,549.97 |
$-398.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $474.13 | 26 | $12,327.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $458.75 | 26 | $11,927.50 | $12,150.09 |
$-399.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $451.01 | 26 | $11,726.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $481.61 | 26 | $12,521.99 | $12,945.82 |
+$795.73 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:20am ET | $491.51 | 26 | $12,779.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $476.59 | 26 | $12,391.34 | $12,558.03 |
$-387.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $470.05 | 26 | $12,221.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $454.22 | 26 | $11,809.72 | $12,146.45 |
$-411.58 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $454.99 | 26 | $11,829.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $440.62 | 26 | $11,456.05 | $11,772.77 |
$-373.68 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:40pm ET | $448.39 | 26 | $11,658.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $434.79 | 26 | $11,304.60 | $11,419.23 |
$-353.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 12:55pm ET | $439.83 | 25 | $10,995.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $426.45 | 25 | $10,661.25 | $11,084.86 |
$-334.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,084.86
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,084.86
Total Return:
+10.85%