XOM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 30 trades in period
+43.28%
Last Year Return
$13,408.06
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$9,358.22
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
26
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
29.9/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 25.7
30-Day Momentum
1
-13.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
28,356
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,358.22
Current Value
$13,408.06
Period P&L
$4,049.84
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
17 /
13
Best Trade
+8.20%
Worst Trade
-4.72%
Avg Trade Return
+1.29%
Avg Hold Time
10.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$698,043.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,049.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,049.84
Gross Return
+43.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+43.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,358.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $103.96 | 90 | $9,356.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $110.35 | 90 | $9,931.05 | $9,951.76 |
+$574.65 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 3:50pm ET | $109.66 | 90 | $9,869.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $106.04 | 90 | $9,543.60 | $9,625.96 |
$-325.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 10:30am ET | $107.51 | 89 | $9,567.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $104.08 | 89 | $9,263.12 | $9,321.14 |
$-304.83 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $102.37 | 91 | $9,315.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 11:25am ET | $107.51 | 91 | $9,783.41 | $9,788.88 |
+$467.74 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 3:50pm ET | $109.41 | 89 | $9,737.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $114.93 | 89 | $10,228.77 | $10,280.60 |
+$491.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 10:40am ET | $114.46 | 89 | $10,186.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $109.92 | 89 | $9,782.44 | $9,876.11 |
$-404.50 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 12:50pm ET | $108.72 | 90 | $9,784.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2025 12:55pm ET | $114.21 | 90 | $10,278.45 | $10,369.76 |
+$493.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $113.21 | 91 | $10,302.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $109.50 | 91 | $9,964.50 | $10,032.15 |
$-337.61 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2025 2:45pm ET | $108.31 | 92 | $9,964.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 2:45pm ET | $109.17 | 92 | $10,043.64 | $10,111.73 |
+$79.58 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2025 2:45pm ET | $109.11 | 92 | $10,037.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 29, 2025 9:45am ET | $114.71 | 92 | $10,553.33 | $10,627.40 |
+$515.67 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2025 9:45am ET | $113.74 | 93 | $10,577.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 10:40am ET | $110.22 | 93 | $10,250.46 | $10,300.04 |
$-327.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 12:20pm ET | $109.51 | 94 | $10,293.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2025 1:25pm ET | $115.12 | 94 | $10,821.28 | $10,827.38 |
+$527.34 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 10:50am ET | $114.30 | 94 | $10,744.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:55pm ET | $110.75 | 94 | $10,410.50 | $10,493.68 |
$-333.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 3:00pm ET | $112.60 | 93 | $10,471.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 2:55pm ET | $118.24 | 93 | $10,996.32 | $11,018.66 |
+$524.99 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
27d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 3:25pm ET | $119.98 | 91 | $10,918.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $116.32 | 91 | $10,585.12 | $10,685.60 |
$-333.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $118.02 | 90 | $10,621.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:30pm ET | $114.47 | 90 | $10,302.31 | $10,366.52 |
$-319.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 3:30pm ET | $115.12 | 90 | $10,360.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 3:30pm ET | $118.95 | 90 | $10,705.50 | $10,711.67 |
+$345.15 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:10am ET | $120.78 | 88 | $10,628.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $126.94 | 88 | $11,170.72 | $11,253.75 |
+$542.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $129.87 | 86 | $11,168.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $136.47 | 86 | $11,736.33 | $11,821.26 |
+$567.51 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $139.48 | 84 | $11,716.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $146.46 | 84 | $12,302.64 | $12,407.58 |
+$586.32 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $148.84 | 83 | $12,353.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $151.38 | 83 | $12,564.54 | $12,618.40 |
+$210.82 (+1.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $147.26 | 85 | $12,517.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.34 | 85 | $13,543.90 | $13,645.20 |
+$1,026.80 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $151.84 | 89 | $13,513.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $159.63 | 89 | $14,207.51 | $14,338.95 |
+$693.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:00pm ET | $158.63 | 90 | $14,276.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $166.69 | 90 | $15,002.10 | $15,064.35 |
+$725.40 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET | $163.68 | 92 | $15,058.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $172.85 | 92 | $15,902.20 | $15,907.68 |
+$843.33 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $171.55 | 92 | $15,782.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:25pm ET | $166.39 | 92 | $15,307.88 | $15,432.96 |
$-474.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $160.23 | 96 | $15,382.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.67 | 96 | $14,656.32 | $14,707.19 |
$-725.77 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $157.46 | 93 | $14,643.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $152.64 | 93 | $14,195.52 | $14,258.93 |
$-448.26 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $152.25 | 93 | $14,159.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.62 | 93 | $13,728.66 | $13,828.34 |
$-430.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $147.26 | 93 | $13,695.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $142.74 | 93 | $13,274.90 | $13,408.06 |
$-420.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,408.06
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,408.06
Total Return:
+34.08%