Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:39:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 3.8/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 3.7

30-Day Momentum

34
+8.9%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.6 Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,770
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,074.58
Current Value
$6,045.63
Period P&L
$-1,028.93
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
4 / 9
Best Trade
+6.97%
Worst Trade
-9.16%
Avg Trade Return
-1.20%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$160,642.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,028.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,028.93
Gross Return
-14.54%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,074.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET $273.85 26 $7,120.10
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET $265.50 26 $6,903.00 $7,061.56 $-217.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $267.12 26 $6,945.12
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $266.64 26 $6,932.64 $7,049.08 $-12.48
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
36m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET $258.56 27 $6,981.12
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET $250.43 27 $6,761.61 $6,829.57 $-219.51
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET $253.48 26 $6,590.35
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $267.15 26 $6,945.90 $7,185.12 +$355.55
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $274.83 26 $7,145.58
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $252.22 26 $6,557.72 $6,597.26 $-587.86
(-8.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $274.83 26 $7,145.58
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $249.65 26 $6,490.77 $5,942.45 $-654.81
(-9.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $243.19 24 $5,836.56
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $234.58 24 $5,629.92 $5,735.81 $-206.64
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 11:55am ET $241.11 23 $5,545.53
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $233.15 23 $5,362.56 $5,552.84 $-182.97
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:05pm ET $240.56 23 $5,532.88
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $231.26 23 $5,318.89 $5,338.85 $-213.99
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET $226.25 23 $5,203.75
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:25pm ET $237.69 23 $5,466.87 $5,601.97 +$263.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET $235.17 23 $5,408.91
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $251.55 23 $5,785.65 $5,978.71 +$376.74
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET $247.74 24 $5,945.76
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET $238.41 24 $5,721.84 $5,754.79 $-223.92
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $240.71 23 $5,536.44
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $253.36 23 $5,827.28 $6,045.63 +$290.84
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,045.63
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,954.37
Total Return: -39.54%
Back to Marcus Reversal