AVAXUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 21 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 22, 2025 | $98.64 | 682 | $8,684.67 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 21 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $1,857.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $8.44 | 226 | $1,907.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 226 | $1,831.67 | $1,822.33 |
$-85.47 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 234 | $1,822.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $8.23 | 234 | $1,926.72 | $1,917.35 |
+$95.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10pm ET | $8.25 | 232 | $1,917.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.67 | 232 | $2,014.96 | $2,005.13 |
+$87.78 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:10pm ET | $9.23 | 217 | $2,005.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.94 | 217 | $1,942.13 | $1,932.26 |
$-72.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $8.93 | 216 | $1,932.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $8.92 | 216 | $1,930.40 | $1,920.74 |
$-11.53 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET | $8.90 | 216 | $1,920.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:10am ET | $8.60 | 216 | $1,856.44 | $1,856.44 |
$-73.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 11:35am ET | $9.09 | 204 | $1,856.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 5:15pm ET | $8.81 | 204 | $1,799.85 | $1,799.85 |
$-65.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 5:30pm ET | $8.82 | 204 | $1,799.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 4:05am ET | $9.27 | 204 | $1,891.68 | $1,891.68 |
+$82.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 6:10am ET | $9.19 | 206 | $1,891.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 7:40am ET | $8.91 | 206 | $1,834.04 | $1,834.04 |
$-66.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 7:45am ET | $8.94 | 205 | $1,834.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $8.51 | 205 | $1,745.83 | $1,745.83 |
$-97.16 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:15pm ET | $8.52 | 205 | $1,745.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:20pm ET | $8.26 | 205 | $1,692.55 | $1,692.55 |
$-61.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:30am ET | $8.22 | 206 | $1,692.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:35pm ET | $8.64 | 206 | $1,779.03 | $1,779.03 |
+$77.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:20pm ET | $8.56 | 208 | $1,779.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:10am ET | $9.02 | 208 | $1,874.63 | $1,874.63 |
+$86.47 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $9.60 | 195 | $1,874.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:50am ET | $9.29 | 195 | $1,814.10 | $1,814.10 |
$-69.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 6:00am ET | $9.29 | 195 | $1,814.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $9.01 | 195 | $1,759.42 | $1,759.42 |
$-63.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 6:50am ET | $9.03 | 195 | $1,759.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:30am ET | $8.73 | 195 | $1,700.97 | $1,700.97 |
$-67.10 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $8.66 | 196 | $1,700.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $9.11 | 196 | $1,789.36 | $1,789.36 |
+$79.66 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 6:45pm ET | $9.14 | 196 | $1,789.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $8.84 | 196 | $1,730.63 | $1,730.63 |
$-67.53 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $8.86 | 195 | $1,730.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $9.32 | 195 | $1,820.48 | $1,820.48 |
+$80.97 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $9.24 | 197 | $1,820.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 5:20am ET | $8.96 | 197 | $1,765.31 | $1,765.31 |
$-64.13 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 5:45am ET | $8.96 | 197 | $1,765.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:20am ET | $9.41 | 197 | $1,853.97 | $1,853.97 |
+$79.61 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)