Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 23:43:56

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.9/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 33.1/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 29.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,751.39
Current Value
$13,887.27
Period P&L
$1,135.88
Max Drawdown
-17.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.43

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+5.76%
Worst Trade
-3.44%
Avg Trade Return
+1.70%
Avg Hold Time
10.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$208,280.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,135.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,135.88
Gross Return
+8.91%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.91%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,751.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $929.82 13 $12,087.66
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $977.78 13 $12,711.14 $12,860.59 +$623.48
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET $959.80 13 $12,477.37
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET $1,010.40 13 $13,135.20 $13,518.42 +$657.83
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET $992.30 13 $12,899.96
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,045.00 13 $13,585.00 $14,203.46 +$685.04
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:45pm ET $1,050.53 13 $13,656.89
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $1,017.30 13 $13,224.90 $13,771.47 $-431.99
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,059.78 12 $12,717.30
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $1,079.84 12 $12,958.09 $14,012.26 +$240.79
(+1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
6 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $1,067.14 13 $13,872.82
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $1,030.39 13 $13,395.07 $13,534.51 $-477.75
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 11:35am ET $1,049.16 12 $12,589.92
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:10pm ET $1,016.07 12 $12,192.84 $13,137.43 $-397.08
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $1,001.00 13 $13,013.00
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,058.68 13 $13,762.84 $13,887.27 +$749.84
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,887.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,887.27
Total Return: +38.87%
Back to Marcus Reversal