Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:25:59

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
73.4 overbought
20d Trend
+6.7%
5d Trend
+8.2%
EMA20 Dist
+6.2%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 4.6/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 4.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,832
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,403.38
Current Value
$8,810.92
Period P&L
$-592.49
Max Drawdown
-28.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
3 / 7
Best Trade
+5.46%
Worst Trade
-3.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.37%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$191,215.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-592.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-592.49
Gross Return
-6.30%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BMY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,403.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET $58.10 158 $9,180.59
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $61.13 158 $9,659.33 $9,690.18 +$478.74
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $61.15 158 $9,661.70
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $60.58 158 $9,570.85 $9,599.33 $-90.85
(-0.9%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $59.76 160 $9,560.80
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 11:05am ET $62.85 160 $10,056.80 $10,095.33 +$496.00
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $61.51 164 $10,087.64
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $59.65 164 $9,783.42 $9,791.11 $-304.22
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:45am ET $59.31 165 $9,786.15
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET $57.42 165 $9,473.48 $9,478.43 $-312.68
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $57.19 165 $9,436.35
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $60.31 165 $9,951.15 $9,993.23 +$514.80
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:30pm ET $61.80 161 $9,949.80
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 11:10am ET $59.90 161 $9,644.13 $9,687.56 $-305.67
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:15am ET $59.06 164 $9,686.66
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $57.28 164 $9,394.03 $9,394.94 $-292.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $60.08 156 $9,372.48
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $58.19 156 $9,076.86 $9,099.32 $-295.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:50am ET $59.38 153 $9,085.90
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $57.50 153 $8,797.50 $8,810.92 $-288.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,810.92
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,189.08
Total Return: -11.89%
Back to Marcus Reversal