Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:02:19

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.6/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
4.4/15
Profit Factor
3.3/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 42.9/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 38.1

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.1%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,829
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,857.43
Current Value
$15,130.98
Period P&L
$1,273.57
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
6 / 5
Best Trade
+5.20%
Worst Trade
-4.18%
Avg Trade Return
+1.13%
Avg Hold Time
6.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$340,874.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,273.57
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,273.57
Gross Return
+9.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.19%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,857.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 3:40pm ET $174.42 77 $13,430.34
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.67 77 $14,065.59 $14,146.93 +$635.25
(+4.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET $181.70 77 $13,990.90
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 11:20am ET $191.14 77 $14,717.78 $14,873.81 +$726.88
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 2:05pm ET $185.24 80 $14,819.20
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 10:15am ET $194.61 80 $15,568.80 $15,623.41 +$749.60
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET $195.04 80 $15,603.20
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 11:35am ET $204.88 80 $16,390.40 $16,410.61 +$787.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $203.79 80 $16,303.20
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $214.07 80 $17,125.44 $17,232.85 +$822.24
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:05pm ET $211.58 81 $17,137.99
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET $204.36 81 $16,553.16 $16,648.02 $-584.83
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET $195.50 85 $16,617.50
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET $188.88 85 $16,054.80 $16,085.32 $-562.70
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $195.08 82 $15,996.55
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET $188.32 82 $15,442.24 $15,531.01 $-554.31
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:45am ET $189.79 81 $15,372.99
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $181.86 81 $14,730.66 $14,888.68 $-642.33
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:35am ET $184.45 80 $14,756.00
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 12:20pm ET $193.68 80 $15,494.40 $15,627.08 +$738.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
11 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 12:20pm ET $190.24 82 $15,599.68
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:10am ET $184.19 82 $15,103.58 $15,130.98 $-496.10
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,130.98
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,130.98
Total Return: +51.31%
Back to Marcus Reversal