ETHUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 49 trades in period
-11.60%
Last 3 Months Return
$334.46
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$299.57
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.4/10
Raw Quality
2.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 2.4
30-Day Momentum
33
+7.6%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.9
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,810
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$299.57
Current Value
$334.46
Period P&L
$-34.74
Max Drawdown
-98.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
20 /
29
Best Trade
+6.67%
Worst Trade
-4.39%
Avg Trade Return
+0.29%
Avg Hold Time
2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$30,957.96
Estimated Fees
$77.39
Gross P&L
$-34.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-112.13
Gross Return
-11.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-37.43%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $299.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $1,870.71 | 0 | $309.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:00pm ET | $1,810.06 | 0 | $299.57 | $298.05 |
$-11.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1,768.10 | 0 | $298.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $1,864.94 | 0 | $314.38 | $312.84 |
+$14.79 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10pm ET | $1,892.96 | 0 | $312.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,991.89 | 0 | $329.19 | $327.59 |
+$14.74 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 4:40pm ET | $2,048.89 | 0 | $327.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $2,056.80 | 0 | $328.85 | $327.21 |
$-0.38 (+0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $2,053.73 | 0 | $327.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:20pm ET | $1,986.20 | 0 | $316.45 | $316.45 |
$-12.37 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:30pm ET | $1,981.23 | 0 | $316.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,913.74 | 0 | $305.67 | $305.67 |
$-12.34 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,974.04 | 0 | $305.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $1,913.66 | 0 | $296.32 | $296.32 |
$-10.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 8:55am ET | $1,922.75 | 0 | $296.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:50pm ET | $1,862.74 | 0 | $287.07 | $287.07 |
$-10.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:55pm ET | $1,856.38 | 0 | $287.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:55am ET | $1,953.17 | 0 | $302.04 | $302.04 |
+$13.49 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $2,062.49 | 0 | $302.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $1,985.46 | 0 | $290.76 | $290.76 |
$-12.76 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,983.35 | 0 | $290.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,917.70 | 0 | $281.14 | $281.14 |
$-11.05 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,916.72 | 0 | $281.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $1,857.50 | 0 | $272.45 | $272.45 |
$-10.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:45am ET | $1,870.80 | 0 | $272.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,968.00 | 0 | $286.61 | $286.61 |
+$12.76 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 6:45pm ET | $1,961.55 | 0 | $286.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $2,062.18 | 0 | $301.31 | $301.31 |
+$13.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $2,034.25 | 0 | $301.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:45am ET | $1,961.33 | 0 | $290.51 | $290.51 |
$-12.28 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:50am ET | $1,954.09 | 0 | $290.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:00am ET | $2,064.36 | 0 | $306.90 | $306.90 |
+$14.90 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 6:35am ET | $2,063.11 | 0 | $306.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $2,170.64 | 0 | $322.90 | $322.90 |
+$14.42 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:00pm ET | $2,152.25 | 0 | $322.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $2,086.92 | 0 | $313.10 | $313.10 |
$-11.39 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $2,063.15 | 0 | $313.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $2,000.00 | 0 | $303.52 | $303.52 |
$-11.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,993.71 | 0 | $303.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2026 11:50pm ET | $1,933.24 | 0 | $294.31 | $294.31 |
$-10.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 8, 2026 4:20am ET | $1,950.35 | 0 | $294.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $2,050.33 | 0 | $309.40 | $309.40 |
+$13.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 4:35pm ET | $2,023.96 | 0 | $309.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 8:20pm ET | $2,130.84 | 0 | $325.73 | $325.73 |
+$14.75 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:50pm ET | $2,104.88 | 0 | $325.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 15, 2026 11:30pm ET | $2,245.34 | 0 | $347.47 | $347.47 |
+$20.05 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 3:45am ET | $2,251.92 | 0 | $347.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 5:45pm ET | $2,365.62 | 0 | $365.02 | $365.02 |
+$15.76 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 7:10pm ET | $2,340.24 | 0 | $365.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 7:35am ET | $2,265.06 | 0 | $353.29 | $353.29 |
$-13.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 7:40am ET | $2,276.66 | 0 | $353.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $2,204.66 | 0 | $342.12 | $342.12 |
$-12.91 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $2,210.00 | 0 | $342.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $2,134.16 | 0 | $330.38 | $330.38 |
$-13.42 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 8:55am ET | $2,132.62 | 0 | $330.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET | $2,060.20 | 0 | $319.16 | $319.16 |
$-12.84 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:00pm ET | $2,152.25 | 0 | $322.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 4:20am ET | $2,084.35 | 0 | $312.71 | $308.97 |
$-11.78 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:25am ET | $2,086.41 | 0 | $308.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 7:30am ET | $2,192.68 | 0 | $324.71 | $324.71 |
+$14.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 8:35am ET | $2,173.27 | 0 | $324.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 5:35am ET | $2,077.86 | 0 | $310.45 | $310.45 |
$-15.84 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 5:40am ET | $2,079.99 | 0 | $310.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET | $2,009.22 | 0 | $299.89 | $299.89 |
$-12.09 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $2,009.63 | 0 | $299.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET | $1,938.90 | 0 | $289.34 | $289.34 |
$-12.03 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 29, 2026 6:55pm ET | $1,958.08 | 0 | $289.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:55am ET | $2,057.91 | 0 | $304.09 | $304.09 |
+$13.27 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 5:45am ET | $2,054.12 | 0 | $304.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $2,164.55 | 0 | $320.44 | $320.44 |
+$14.79 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $2,129.61 | 0 | $320.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:45pm ET | $2,065.65 | 0 | $310.82 | $310.82 |
$-11.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:05pm ET | $2,072.67 | 0 | $310.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET | $2,177.48 | 0 | $326.54 | $326.54 |
+$14.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET | $2,233.81 | 0 | $326.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $2,162.44 | 0 | $316.11 | $316.11 |
$-12.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $2,165.17 | 0 | $316.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $2,276.04 | 0 | $332.30 | $332.30 |
+$14.57 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 4:35pm ET | $2,291.25 | 0 | $332.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET | $2,211.84 | 0 | $320.78 | $320.78 |
$-13.15 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 9:55pm ET | $2,224.02 | 0 | $320.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:35pm ET | $2,341.86 | 0 | $337.78 | $337.78 |
+$15.35 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 8:35pm ET | $2,365.11 | 0 | $337.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $2,293.74 | 0 | $327.59 | $327.59 |
$-11.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $2,290.37 | 0 | $327.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:15am ET | $2,408.24 | 0 | $344.45 | $344.45 |
+$15.18 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $2,430.10 | 0 | $344.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 18, 2026 7:10am ET | $2,357.14 | 0 | $334.11 | $334.11 |
$-12.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 18, 2026 7:40am ET | $2,345.54 | 0 | $334.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 6:00pm ET | $2,275.07 | 0 | $324.07 | $324.07 |
$-11.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET | $2,258.87 | 0 | $324.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:05pm ET | $2,374.48 | 0 | $340.66 | $340.66 |
+$14.92 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:55am ET | $2,392.75 | 0 | $340.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 5:50am ET | $2,317.00 | 0 | $329.88 | $329.88 |
$-12.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 5:55am ET | $2,317.05 | 0 | $329.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $2,232.05 | 0 | $317.78 | $317.78 |
$-13.72 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $2,230.30 | 0 | $317.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 3, 2026 6:15pm ET | $2,347.37 | 0 | $334.46 | $334.46 |
+$15.05 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$334.46
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,665.54
Total Return:
-96.66%