Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:09:24

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.5/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 28.2/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 25.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,411.04
Current Value
$12,406.10
Period P&L
$-4.95
Max Drawdown
-11.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
3 / 5
Best Trade
+5.71%
Worst Trade
-3.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
10d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$195,979.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4.95
Gross Return
-0.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,411.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $496.82 24 $11,923.68
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:45pm ET $481.73 24 $11,561.52 $12,057.05 $-362.16
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $491.76 24 $11,802.24
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 10:55am ET $516.45 24 $12,394.68 $12,649.49 +$592.44
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:50pm ET $523.16 24 $12,555.84
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $507.02 24 $12,168.36 $12,262.01 $-387.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $499.97 24 $11,999.28
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $528.50 24 $12,684.00 $12,946.73 +$684.72
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $513.96 25 $12,849.00
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:20am ET $498.52 25 $12,463.00 $12,560.73 $-386.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $500.37 25 $12,509.25
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET $484.77 25 $12,119.37 $12,170.85 $-389.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
28d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $475.55 25 $11,888.75
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $499.94 25 $12,498.50 $12,780.60 +$609.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $498.73 25 $12,468.25
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $483.75 25 $12,093.75 $12,406.10 $-374.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,406.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,406.10
Total Return: +24.06%
Back to Marcus Reversal