Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MDT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MDT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 7 trades in period

-18.47%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,361.04
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$13,934.58
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:08

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 20.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 18.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,777
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,934.58
Current Value
$11,361.04
Period P&L
$-2,573.55
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-5.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
0 / 7
Best Trade
-1.52%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
-2.93%
Avg Hold Time
10.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$177,424.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,573.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,573.55
Gross Return
-18.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-18.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,934.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $103.11 135 $13,919.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $101.54 135 $13,708.57 $13,769.96 $-211.28
(-1.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $95.91 143 $13,715.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET $92.82 143 $13,273.97 $13,328.80 $-441.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET $90.17 147 $13,254.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:25am ET $87.43 147 $12,852.21 $12,926.02 $-402.78
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $87.87 147 $12,916.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $84.97 147 $12,491.32 $12,500.45 $-425.57
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $86.03 145 $12,474.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.37 145 $12,088.65 $12,114.75 $-385.70
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.12 145 $12,052.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $80.55 145 $11,679.75 $11,742.10 $-372.65
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $80.06 146 $11,688.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $77.45 146 $11,307.70 $11,361.04 $-381.06
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,361.04
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,361.04
Total Return: +13.61%
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