Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:01:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.4

30-Day Momentum

54
+18.4%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 66.4 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+49 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,889
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,417.27
Current Value
$7,324.69
Period P&L
$1,907.39
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+9.30%
Worst Trade
-5.38%
Avg Trade Return
+1.63%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$271,336.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,907.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,907.39
Gross Return
+35.21%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.21%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,417.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,138 $5,416.54
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET $5.00 1,138 $5,689.54 $5,690.32 +$273.01
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $4.93 1,155 $5,688.38
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $5.22 1,155 $6,029.10 $6,031.04 +$340.72
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:30am ET $5.20 1,158 $6,027.39
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 12:45pm ET $5.05 1,158 $5,846.16 $5,849.81 $-181.23
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $4.91 1,190 $5,848.85
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,190 $5,664.40 $5,665.36 $-184.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,254 $5,661.81
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:05am ET $4.74 1,254 $5,950.23 $5,953.78 +$288.42
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET $4.74 1,256 $5,953.31
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $5.18 1,256 $6,506.96 $6,507.42 +$553.64
(+9.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 10:55am ET $5.61 1,160 $6,505.98
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET $5.89 1,160 $6,834.02 $6,835.47 +$328.05
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 11:55am ET $6.11 1,119 $6,831.50
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $5.90 1,119 $6,602.10 $6,606.08 $-229.39
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $5.73 1,152 $6,601.08
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET $5.55 1,152 $6,391.41 $6,396.41 $-209.66
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.82 1,098 $6,391.90
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.64 1,098 $6,192.72 $6,197.23 $-199.18
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $5.41 1,145 $6,196.05
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET $5.71 1,145 $6,537.95 $6,539.13 +$341.90
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET $6.11 1,071 $6,538.46
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $6.42 1,071 $6,874.00 $6,874.67 +$335.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $6.13 1,121 $6,871.73
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $6.45 1,121 $7,224.85 $7,227.79 +$353.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $6.12 1,180 $7,224.20
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET $6.52 1,180 $7,693.60 $7,697.19 +$469.40
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET $6.47 1,190 $7,693.35
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $6.79 1,190 $8,078.31 $8,082.15 +$384.96
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $6.74 1,198 $8,075.72
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $6.53 1,198 $7,824.62 $7,831.05 $-251.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET $6.53 1,198 $7,828.93
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $6.32 1,198 $7,571.36 $7,573.48 $-257.57
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET $6.20 1,220 $7,570.10
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,220 $8,052.00 $8,055.38 +$481.90
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,286 $8,049.97
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:50am ET $6.01 1,286 $7,735.29 $7,740.70 $-314.68
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
20 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:40am ET $6.04 1,282 $7,739.43
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,282 $7,323.43 $7,324.69 $-416.01
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,324.69
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,675.31
Total Return: -26.75%
Back to Marcus Reversal