Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 18:25:02

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 4.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.3

30-Day Momentum

4
-14.1%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,650.28
Current Value
$6,241.79
Period P&L
$-408.52
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
8 / 14
Best Trade
+6.66%
Worst Trade
-5.38%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$315,877.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-408.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$-408.52
Gross Return
-6.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,650.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $5.73 1,152 $6,601.08
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET $5.55 1,152 $6,391.41 $6,396.41 $-209.66
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.82 1,098 $6,391.90
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.64 1,098 $6,192.72 $6,197.23 $-199.18
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $5.41 1,145 $6,196.05
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET $5.71 1,145 $6,537.95 $6,539.13 +$341.90
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET $6.11 1,071 $6,538.46
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $6.42 1,071 $6,874.00 $6,874.67 +$335.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $6.13 1,121 $6,871.73
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $6.45 1,121 $7,224.85 $7,227.79 +$353.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $6.12 1,180 $7,224.20
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET $6.52 1,180 $7,693.60 $7,697.19 +$469.40
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET $6.47 1,190 $7,693.35
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $6.79 1,190 $8,078.31 $8,082.15 +$384.96
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $6.74 1,198 $8,075.72
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $6.53 1,198 $7,824.62 $7,831.05 $-251.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET $6.53 1,198 $7,828.93
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $6.32 1,198 $7,571.36 $7,573.48 $-257.57
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET $6.20 1,220 $7,570.10
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,220 $8,052.00 $8,055.38 +$481.90
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,286 $8,049.97
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:50am ET $6.01 1,286 $7,735.29 $7,740.70 $-314.68
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:40am ET $6.04 1,282 $7,739.43
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,282 $7,323.43 $7,324.69 $-416.01
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.93 1,236 $7,323.30
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $6.32 1,236 $7,811.40 $7,812.79 +$488.10
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
14 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 9:40am ET $6.32 1,235 $7,811.37
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $6.12 1,235 $7,558.20 $7,559.62 $-253.17
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
15 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $5.95 1,270 $7,556.50
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $5.72 1,270 $7,264.40 $7,267.52 $-292.10
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
16 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $5.64 1,288 $7,264.32
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 10:25am ET $5.43 1,288 $6,993.97 $6,997.17 $-270.35
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:25am ET $5.22 1,341 $6,993.32
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $5.48 1,341 $7,348.68 $7,352.53 +$355.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
18 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 11:40am ET $5.58 1,317 $7,348.73
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $5.38 1,317 $7,085.46 $7,089.26 $-263.27
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 11:00am ET $5.91 1,198 $7,086.17
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:50pm ET $5.73 1,198 $6,866.22 $6,869.31 $-219.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.58 1,230 $6,865.74
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:45am ET $5.41 1,230 $6,654.30 $6,657.87 $-211.44
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:45am ET $5.50 1,210 $6,655.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $5.32 1,210 $6,437.32 $6,440.19 $-217.68
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:20pm ET $5.19 1,240 $6,435.60
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $5.03 1,240 $6,237.20 $6,241.79 $-198.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,241.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,758.21
Total Return: -37.58%
Back to Marcus Reversal