Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:36

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 28.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.3

30-Day Momentum

70
+20.3%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 89.6 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+41 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,833
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,523.20
Current Value
$14,528.29
Period P&L
$1,005.07
Max Drawdown
-29.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
8 / 7
Best Trade
+6.07%
Worst Trade
-9.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.61%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$391,244.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,005.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,005.07
Gross Return
+7.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,523.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET $164.81 82 $13,514.42
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET $148.51 82 $12,177.41 $12,186.21 $-1,337.01
(-9.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET $148.88 81 $12,059.68
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 10:25am ET $156.35 81 $12,663.95 $12,790.47 +$604.26
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:30am ET $145.48 87 $12,656.76
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $140.41 87 $12,216.10 $12,349.81 $-440.66
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $144.45 85 $12,277.91
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET $152.16 85 $12,933.60 $13,005.50 +$655.69
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 11:15am ET $161.99 80 $12,959.20
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET $170.23 80 $13,618.00 $13,664.30 +$658.80
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 10:50am ET $168.71 80 $13,497.20
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 12:40pm ET $163.60 80 $13,088.00 $13,255.10 $-409.20
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $164.36 80 $13,148.80
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $158.08 80 $12,646.40 $12,752.70 $-502.40
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $155.68 81 $12,610.48
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $147.33 81 $11,933.73 $12,075.95 $-676.75
(-5.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:05pm ET $157.37 76 $11,960.12
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET $165.28 76 $12,561.28 $12,677.11 +$601.16
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $169.73 74 $12,560.02
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $164.60 74 $12,180.40 $12,297.49 $-379.62
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $154.29 79 $12,189.30
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $162.04 79 $12,801.55 $12,909.74 +$612.25
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:55pm ET $160.65 80 $12,851.60
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $170.40 80 $13,632.00 $13,690.14 +$780.40
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET $168.55 81 $13,652.55
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET $177.05 81 $14,341.05 $14,378.64 +$688.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $173.73 82 $14,245.86
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $182.50 82 $14,965.00 $15,097.78 +$719.14
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:55am ET $182.15 82 $14,935.89
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET $175.20 82 $14,366.40 $14,528.29 $-569.49
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,528.29
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,528.29
Total Return: +45.28%
Back to Marcus Reversal