Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:58:24

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
85.2 overbought
20d Trend
+19.9%
5d Trend
+9.7%
EMA20 Dist
+9.3%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
62.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 4.6/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,808
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,760.22
Current Value
$9,494.29
Period P&L
$-265.93
Max Drawdown
-23.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+5.28%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
+0.36%
Avg Hold Time
12d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$94,859.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-265.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-265.93
Gross Return
-2.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,760.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET $160.86 58 $9,329.88
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:50am ET $169.36 58 $9,822.88 $9,847.22 +$493.00
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET $166.88 59 $9,845.92
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $166.59 59 $9,828.81 $9,830.11 $-17.11
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $164.57 59 $9,709.63
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $158.25 59 $9,336.75 $9,457.23 $-372.88
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:05am ET $160.08 59 $9,444.83
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $155.25 59 $9,159.75 $9,172.15 $-285.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 2:35pm ET $153.04 59 $9,029.36
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $158.50 59 $9,351.50 $9,494.29 +$322.14
(+3.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,494.29
Net Profit/Loss: $-505.71
Total Return: -5.06%
Back to Marcus Reversal