PEPEUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 33 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2025 | $96.56 | 1,367 | $146,388.23 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,385.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:50pm ET | $0.00000341 | 1,867,234,348 | $6,367.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000320 | 1,867,234,348 | $5,975.15 | $5,944.29 |
$-422.98 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 1,923,719,697 | $5,944.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 1,923,719,697 | $6,252.09 | $6,221.60 |
+$277.30 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:25pm ET | $0.00000326 | 1,908,465,662 | $6,221.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:50pm ET | $0.00000345 | 1,908,465,662 | $6,584.21 | $6,552.19 |
+$330.59 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $0.00000362 | 1,809,997,796 | $6,552.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000383 | 1,809,997,796 | $6,932.29 | $6,898.58 |
+$346.39 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:40pm ET | $0.00000387 | 1,782,578,902 | $6,898.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 9:45am ET | $0.00000374 | 1,782,578,902 | $6,666.85 | $6,632.93 |
$-265.65 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $0.00000387 | 1,713,935,796 | $6,632.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000375 | 1,713,935,796 | $6,427.26 | $6,394.61 |
$-238.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000374 | 1,709,788,438 | $6,394.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $0.00000375 | 1,709,788,438 | $6,411.71 | $6,379.69 |
$-14.92 (+0.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $0.00000374 | 1,705,799,465 | $6,379.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000362 | 1,705,799,465 | $6,174.99 | $6,174.99 |
$-236.08 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000362 | 1,705,799,465 | $6,174.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 5:45am ET | $0.00000351 | 1,705,799,465 | $5,987.36 | $5,987.36 |
$-218.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000348 | 1,720,504,633 | $5,987.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 4:35pm ET | $0.00000366 | 1,720,504,633 | $6,297.05 | $6,297.05 |
+$278.98 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 6:05pm ET | $0.00000448 | 1,405,591,518 | $6,297.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:35am ET | $0.00000433 | 1,405,591,518 | $6,086.21 | $6,086.21 |
$-241.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 3:55am ET | $0.00000433 | 1,405,591,224 | $6,086.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000419 | 1,405,591,224 | $5,889.43 | $5,889.43 |
$-226.72 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 5:35pm ET | $0.00000420 | 1,402,245,238 | $5,889.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 8:35am ET | $0.00000407 | 1,402,245,238 | $5,707.14 | $5,707.14 |
$-211.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000420 | 1,358,842,857 | $5,707.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 10:20pm ET | $0.00000405 | 1,358,842,857 | $5,503.31 | $5,503.31 |
$-231.85 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 10:25pm ET | $0.00000407 | 1,352,164,619 | $5,503.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000389 | 1,352,164,619 | $5,259.92 | $5,259.92 |
$-270.30 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:15pm ET | $0.00000390 | 1,348,697,436 | $5,259.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 6:20am ET | $0.00000410 | 1,348,697,436 | $5,529.66 | $5,529.66 |
+$242.77 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 8:50am ET | $0.00000415 | 1,332,448,193 | $5,529.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000401 | 1,332,448,193 | $5,343.12 | $5,343.12 |
$-213.72 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000401 | 1,332,448,878 | $5,343.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:15pm ET | $0.00000387 | 1,332,448,878 | $5,156.58 | $5,156.58 |
$-212.79 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 4:30am ET | $0.00000390 | 1,322,200,000 | $5,156.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:15pm ET | $0.00000411 | 1,322,200,000 | $5,434.24 | $5,434.24 |
+$251.18 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:30pm ET | $0.00000408 | 1,331,921,569 | $5,434.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:30am ET | $0.00000395 | 1,331,921,569 | $5,261.09 | $5,261.09 |
$-199.89 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:40am ET | $0.00000392 | 1,342,114,796 | $5,261.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:15am ET | $0.00000412 | 1,342,114,796 | $5,529.51 | $5,529.51 |
+$241.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 5:45pm ET | $0.00000424 | 1,304,129,717 | $5,529.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET | $0.00000408 | 1,304,129,717 | $5,320.85 | $5,320.85 |
$-235.79 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:50pm ET | $0.00000409 | 1,300,941,320 | $5,320.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:50am ET | $0.00000396 | 1,300,941,320 | $5,151.73 | $5,151.73 |
$-195.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 5:55am ET | $0.00000396 | 1,300,941,919 | $5,151.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000383 | 1,300,941,919 | $4,982.61 | $4,982.61 |
$-194.46 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000381 | 1,307,771,654 | $4,982.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 8:30am ET | $0.00000369 | 1,307,771,654 | $4,825.68 | $4,825.68 |
$-181.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 8:35am ET | $0.00000369 | 1,307,772,358 | $4,825.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:20am ET | $0.00000355 | 1,307,772,358 | $4,642.59 | $4,642.59 |
$-206.76 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:25am ET | $0.00000356 | 1,304,098,315 | $4,642.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:55am ET | $0.00000345 | 1,304,098,315 | $4,499.14 | $4,499.14 |
$-166.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 4:00am ET | $0.00000345 | 1,304,098,551 | $4,499.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 2:35pm ET | $0.00000363 | 1,304,098,551 | $4,733.88 | $4,733.88 |
+$211.66 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000364 | 1,300,516,484 | $4,733.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000353 | 1,300,516,484 | $4,590.82 | $4,590.82 |
$-166.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 8:00am ET | $0.00000352 | 1,304,210,227 | $4,590.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $0.00000341 | 1,304,210,227 | $4,447.36 | $4,447.36 |
$-166.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.00000338 | 1,315,786,982 | $4,447.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000357 | 1,315,786,982 | $4,697.36 | $4,697.36 |
+$227.14 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $0.00000357 | 1,315,787,115 | $4,697.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:00am ET | $0.00000346 | 1,315,787,115 | $4,552.62 | $4,552.62 |
$-167.86 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000346 | 1,315,786,127 | $4,552.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 8:50am ET | $0.00000367 | 1,315,786,127 | $4,828.94 | $4,828.94 |
+$252.86 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)