Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 6.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 6.6

30-Day Momentum

9
-22.0%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,867
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,492.87
Current Value
$9,878.19
Period P&L
$-2,614.68
Max Drawdown
-46.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
10 / 15
Best Trade
+6.98%
Worst Trade
-22.94%
Avg Trade Return
-0.71%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$641,311.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,614.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,614.68
Gross Return
-20.93%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,492.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET $66.93 186 $12,449.91
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $71.61 186 $13,319.46 $13,362.42 +$869.55
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:40am ET $72.87 183 $13,335.21
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:45am ET $70.48 183 $12,897.84 $12,925.05 $-437.37
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $63.47 203 $12,885.42
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET $61.41 203 $12,466.23 $12,505.86 $-419.19
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $60.17 207 $12,456.22
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET $63.37 207 $13,117.59 $13,167.22 +$661.36
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 11:00am ET $66.62 197 $13,124.14
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET $70.29 197 $13,848.11 $13,891.19 +$723.97
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 11:15am ET $69.32 200 $13,864.00
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET $66.36 200 $13,273.00 $13,300.19 $-591.00
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET $63.60 209 $13,292.40
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $66.96 209 $13,994.64 $14,002.43 +$702.24
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 1:55pm ET $67.67 206 $13,940.02
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $65.50 206 $13,493.00 $13,555.41 $-447.02
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $63.56 213 $13,537.22
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $60.58 213 $12,903.54 $12,921.74 $-633.67
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 12:05pm ET $59.10 218 $12,883.80
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $57.30 218 $12,491.40 $12,529.34 $-392.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET $55.98 223 $12,483.54
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:10am ET $59.24 223 $13,211.63 $13,257.43 +$728.09
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $59.35 223 $13,233.94
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:50pm ET $57.31 223 $12,780.13 $12,803.63 $-453.80
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $58.31 219 $12,770.98
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:05pm ET $56.54 219 $12,383.35 $12,416.00 $-387.63
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $56.41 220 $12,410.20
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET $54.69 220 $12,031.80 $12,037.60 $-378.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $52.58 228 $11,989.38
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET $55.32 228 $12,612.96 $12,661.18 +$623.58
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $57.80 219 $12,658.20
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $56.04 219 $12,272.76 $12,275.74 $-385.44
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET $57.53 213 $12,254.95
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET $55.74 213 $11,872.62 $11,893.41 $-382.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET $52.92 224 $11,852.96
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $56.50 224 $12,656.00 $12,696.45 +$803.04
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:00pm ET $57.01 222 $12,656.22
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $60.29 222 $13,384.38 $13,424.61 +$728.16
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $60.26 222 $13,378.83
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET $63.42 222 $14,080.35 $14,126.13 +$701.52
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET $61.21 230 $14,077.15
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $56.80 230 $13,064.00 $13,112.98 $-1,013.15
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $53.65 244 $13,091.82
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET $56.47 244 $13,778.68 $13,799.84 +$686.86
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET $56.46 244 $13,777.29
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $54.53 244 $13,306.54 $13,329.09 $-470.75
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.18 241 $13,298.38
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $42.52 241 $10,247.32 $10,278.03 $-3,051.06
(-22.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held
25 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 3:25pm ET $47.72 215 $10,260.81
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:40am ET $45.87 215 $9,860.98 $9,878.19 $-399.84
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,878.19
Net Profit/Loss: $-121.81
Total Return: -1.22%
Back to Marcus Reversal