Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.1

30-Day Momentum

33
+10.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.0 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,867
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,020.02
Current Value
$5,729.11
Period P&L
$709.14
Max Drawdown
-51.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
10 / 12
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-3.80%
Avg Trade Return
+0.70%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$222,932.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$709.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$709.14
Gross Return
+14.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,020.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $14.48 346 $5,010.08
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.70 346 $5,087.93 $5,097.82 +$77.85
(+1.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.95 340 $5,084.70
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET $14.50 340 $4,929.05 $4,942.17 $-155.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.37 284 $4,933.08
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET $16.84 284 $4,783.98 $4,793.07 $-149.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 11:45am ET $16.57 289 $4,787.29
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $15.94 289 $4,605.22 $4,611.00 $-182.07
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 10:30am ET $15.18 303 $4,598.93
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $14.72 303 $4,458.65 $4,470.71 $-140.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $15.10 296 $4,468.12
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $14.64 296 $4,333.44 $4,336.03 $-134.68
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $15.00 289 $4,334.97
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $15.77 289 $4,556.09 $4,557.14 +$221.11
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.57 275 $4,556.75
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 11:15am ET $15.97 275 $4,391.75 $4,392.14 $-165.00
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 11:35am ET $15.13 290 $4,387.73
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 1:15pm ET $15.90 290 $4,609.55 $4,613.97 +$221.82
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 10:45am ET $16.07 287 $4,612.09
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET $15.59 287 $4,472.90 $4,474.77 $-139.19
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $15.00 289 $4,334.97
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $15.84 289 $4,577.76 $4,717.56 +$242.79
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $15.41 306 $4,715.46
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $16.33 306 $4,995.45 $4,997.55 +$279.99
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $15.38 324 $4,983.12
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $14.91 324 $4,830.84 $4,845.27 $-152.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET $14.57 332 $4,838.90
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 332 $5,169.24 $5,175.61 +$330.34
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $15.14 341 $5,161.04
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET $14.66 341 $4,999.06 $5,013.63 $-161.98
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $14.97 335 $5,013.28
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET $15.83 335 $5,303.08 $5,303.44 +$289.81
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 11:35am ET $15.35 345 $5,297.47
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $16.47 345 $5,682.15 $5,688.11 +$384.67
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $16.23 350 $5,678.75
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.11 350 $5,988.50 $5,997.86 +$309.75
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $16.83 356 $5,993.26
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:50am ET $17.76 356 $6,324.34 $6,328.94 +$331.08
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $17.11 369 $6,315.43
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET $16.50 369 $6,088.50 $6,102.01 $-226.93
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET $16.52 369 $6,095.58
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET $16.01 369 $5,909.53 $5,915.96 $-186.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:50am ET $15.98 370 $5,910.75
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.47 370 $5,723.90 $5,729.11 $-186.85
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,729.11
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,270.89
Total Return: -42.71%
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