SHIBUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 24 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2025 | $98.62 | 796 | $15,208.30 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,927.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.00000564 | 1,062,302,091 | $5,991.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000522 | 1,062,302,091 | $5,545.22 | $5,516.38 |
$-475.01 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000510 | 1,081,642,238 | $5,516.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000547 | 1,081,642,238 | $5,916.58 | $5,888.00 |
+$371.63 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $0.00000585 | 1,006,495,837 | $5,888.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000615 | 1,006,495,837 | $6,189.95 | $6,159.75 |
+$271.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000625 | 985,560,723 | $6,159.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:30am ET | $0.00000606 | 985,560,723 | $5,972.50 | $5,942.17 |
$-217.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:35am ET | $0.00000608 | 977,330,157 | $5,942.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000639 | 977,330,157 | $6,245.14 | $6,214.67 |
+$272.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $0.00000631 | 984,892,462 | $6,214.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000612 | 984,892,462 | $6,027.54 | $5,996.94 |
$-217.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000608 | 986,338,213 | $5,996.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $0.00000605 | 986,338,213 | $5,967.35 | $5,937.44 |
$-59.50 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET | $0.00000603 | 984,650,083 | $5,937.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.00000584 | 984,650,083 | $5,750.36 | $5,750.36 |
$-216.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 6:05pm ET | $0.00000658 | 873,914,894 | $5,750.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $0.00000636 | 873,914,894 | $5,558.10 | $5,558.10 |
$-220.53 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.00000636 | 873,915,094 | $5,558.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:05am ET | $0.00000616 | 873,915,094 | $5,383.32 | $5,383.32 |
$-202.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.00000636 | 873,915,094 | $5,558.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:40am ET | $0.00000616 | 873,915,094 | $5,383.32 | $5,208.54 |
$-202.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $0.00000614 | 848,296,417 | $5,208.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000650 | 848,296,417 | $5,513.93 | $5,513.93 |
+$278.58 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000632 | 872,457,278 | $5,513.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $0.00000612 | 872,457,278 | $5,339.44 | $5,339.44 |
$-201.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET | $0.00000605 | 882,552,066 | $5,339.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000636 | 882,552,066 | $5,613.03 | $5,613.03 |
+$246.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:45pm ET | $0.00000638 | 879,785,266 | $5,613.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:45pm ET | $0.00000617 | 879,785,266 | $5,428.28 | $5,428.28 |
$-212.36 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:50pm ET | $0.00000618 | 878,362,460 | $5,428.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000599 | 878,362,460 | $5,261.39 | $5,261.39 |
$-193.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000596 | 882,783,557 | $5,261.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000578 | 882,783,557 | $5,102.49 | $5,102.49 |
$-184.81 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000575 | 887,389,565 | $5,102.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $0.00000557 | 887,389,565 | $4,942.76 | $4,942.76 |
$-184.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:45am ET | $0.00000559 | 884,214,669 | $4,942.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 9:05pm ET | $0.00000593 | 884,214,669 | $5,243.39 | $5,243.39 |
+$275.17 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 10:45pm ET | $0.00000587 | 893,252,129 | $5,243.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:55am ET | $0.00000569 | 893,252,129 | $5,082.60 | $5,082.60 |
$-186.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 4:00am ET | $0.00000570 | 891,684,211 | $5,082.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 2:25pm ET | $0.00000552 | 891,684,211 | $4,922.10 | $4,922.10 |
$-185.51 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.4h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $0.00000552 | 891,684,783 | $4,922.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:50am ET | $0.00000534 | 891,684,783 | $4,761.60 | $4,761.60 |
$-184.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:55am ET | $0.00000534 | 891,685,393 | $4,761.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:10am ET | $0.00000562 | 891,685,393 | $5,011.27 | $5,011.27 |
+$225.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 5:30am ET | $0.00000555 | 902,931,532 | $5,011.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 12:40pm ET | $0.00000585 | 902,931,532 | $5,282.15 | $5,282.15 |
+$245.15 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)