Compendium › Marcus Reversal › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 24 trades in period

-13.73%
Last 3 Months Return
$1,583.09
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$1,834.97
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:22:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

14
+1.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.8 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$1,834.97
Current Value
$1,583.09
Period P&L
$-251.94
Max Drawdown
-88.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
8 / 16
Best Trade
+6.14%
Worst Trade
-8.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.52%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$80,924.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-251.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-251.94
Gross Return
-13.73%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.73%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $1,834.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET $33.79 54 $1,824.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $33.47 54 $1,807.65 $1,817.77 $-17.25
(-0.9%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET $29.67 61 $1,809.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET $31.25 61 $1,906.25 $1,914.15 +$96.38
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $32.00 59 $1,888.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $30.95 59 $1,826.17 $1,852.32 $-61.83
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:45am ET $32.81 56 $1,837.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET $31.79 56 $1,780.32 $1,795.28 $-57.04
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:40pm ET $32.22 55 $1,772.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $30.88 55 $1,698.40 $1,721.58 $-73.70
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $30.78 55 $1,693.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET $29.77 55 $1,637.35 $1,665.76 $-55.82
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $32.44 51 $1,654.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $31.39 51 $1,600.89 $1,612.21 $-53.55
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $30.02 53 $1,591.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $31.68 53 $1,679.30 $1,700.45 +$88.24
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:55am ET $31.85 53 $1,688.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 2:45pm ET $30.86 53 $1,635.84 $1,648.25 $-52.21
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET $31.04 53 $1,645.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:50am ET $32.65 53 $1,730.71 $1,733.90 +$85.65
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 10:25am ET $31.00 55 $1,705.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $30.05 55 $1,652.75 $1,681.43 $-52.47
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $22.07 76 $1,676.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET $21.33 76 $1,621.46 $1,625.95 $-55.48
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:30pm ET $21.73 74 $1,607.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $23.06 74 $1,706.44 $1,724.74 +$98.79
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET $23.43 73 $1,710.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $22.65 73 $1,653.45 $1,667.44 $-57.30
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $21.66 76 $1,646.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $21.00 76 $1,596.38 $1,617.65 $-49.79
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $22.75 71 $1,615.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $21.99 71 $1,561.29 $1,563.34 $-54.31
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET $22.69 68 $1,542.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $21.91 68 $1,489.88 $1,510.31 $-53.03
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $22.95 65 $1,491.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $24.22 65 $1,574.30 $1,592.86 +$82.55
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET $24.58 64 $1,573.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:30pm ET $25.85 64 $1,654.40 $1,674.14 +$81.28
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $27.41 61 $1,672.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $29.00 61 $1,769.00 $1,771.13 +$96.99
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $27.83 63 $1,752.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $29.35 63 $1,849.05 $1,867.20 +$96.07
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET $29.10 64 $1,862.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $26.51 64 $1,696.64 $1,701.44 $-165.76
(-8.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $28.63 59 $1,689.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:20am ET $27.66 59 $1,631.65 $1,643.92 $-57.52
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET $27.29 60 $1,637.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $26.28 60 $1,576.80 $1,583.09 $-60.83
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $1,583.09
Net Profit/Loss: $-8,416.91
Total Return: -84.17%
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