Compendium › Marcus Reversal › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 3 trades in period

+1.33%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,127.22
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$7,033.73
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-06-24 19:57:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
17.3
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 4.7/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,033.73
Current Value
$7,127.22
Period P&L
$93.48
Max Drawdown
-27.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+3.25%
Worst Trade
-3.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
27d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$42,053.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$93.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$93.48
Gross Return
+1.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.33%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,033.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $85.69 82 $7,026.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.85 82 $7,121.29 $7,128.04 +$94.30
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET $86.59 82 $7,100.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $83.86 82 $6,876.52 $6,904.18 $-223.86
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held
3 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:55am ET $83.57 82 $6,852.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET $86.29 82 $7,075.78 $7,127.22 +$223.04
(+3.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,127.22
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,872.78
Total Return: -28.73%
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