Compendium › Marcus Reversal › USO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
USO
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 23 trades in period

+8.71%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,811.73
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$12,705.33
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:22:53

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
13.2/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 29.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 29.0

30-Day Momentum

12
-5.1%
30d Return
56%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.4 Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,847
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,705.33
Current Value
$13,811.73
Period P&L
$1,106.38
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
12 / 11
Best Trade
+8.81%
Worst Trade
-15.03%
Avg Trade Return
+0.52%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$644,779.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,106.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,106.38
Gross Return
+8.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,705.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:30am ET $76.49 166 $12,697.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $78.04 166 $12,953.81 $13,023.24 +$256.47
(+2.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET $75.43 172 $12,974.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 2:10pm ET $79.22 172 $13,625.84 $13,674.26 +$651.02
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET $80.97 168 $13,602.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $78.09 168 $13,119.10 $13,190.40 $-483.86
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 11:30am ET $81.08 162 $13,134.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $87.67 162 $14,202.54 $14,257.98 +$1,067.58
(+8.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET $92.10 154 $14,183.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 2:40pm ET $88.78 154 $13,671.97 $13,746.55 $-511.43
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $96.87 141 $13,658.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $105.40 141 $14,862.10 $14,949.98 +$1,203.43
(+8.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET $117.36 127 $14,904.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 11:55am ET $113.70 127 $14,439.90 $14,485.13 $-464.85
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $98.23 147 $14,439.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET $103.31 147 $15,186.57 $15,231.89 +$746.76
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 12:30pm ET $116.01 131 $15,197.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $121.99 131 $15,980.68 $16,015.26 +$783.37
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 12:55pm ET $120.58 132 $15,916.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET $116.71 132 $15,405.73 $15,504.43 $-510.83
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $113.15 137 $15,501.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET $108.11 137 $14,811.06 $14,813.94 $-690.49
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 11:05am ET $113.34 130 $14,734.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $109.13 130 $14,186.90 $14,266.64 $-547.30
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 2:45pm ET $117.64 121 $14,233.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $124.09 121 $15,014.88 $15,047.68 +$781.04
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET $127.62 117 $14,931.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:40am ET $123.43 117 $14,441.31 $14,557.45 $-490.23
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $134.01 108 $14,473.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET $140.81 108 $15,207.49 $15,291.86 +$734.41
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:20pm ET $140.29 108 $15,151.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $119.21 108 $12,874.25 $13,014.25 $-2,277.61
(-15.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $126.13 103 $12,991.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $133.26 103 $13,725.90 $13,748.76 +$734.51
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:45am ET $126.80 108 $13,694.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET $122.80 108 $13,262.40 $13,316.76 $-432.00
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $127.03 104 $13,211.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $114.85 104 $11,944.79 $12,050.04 $-1,266.72
(-9.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 3:40pm ET $121.55 99 $12,033.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $128.00 99 $12,672.00 $12,688.59 +$638.55
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:50am ET $130.51 97 $12,659.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $137.15 97 $13,303.55 $13,332.67 +$644.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET $130.04 102 $13,264.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $139.33 102 $14,211.65 $14,280.24 +$947.57
(+7.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 10:10am ET $147.18 97 $14,276.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $142.35 97 $13,807.95 $13,811.73 $-468.51
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,811.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,811.73
Total Return: +38.12%
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