Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:12

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
17.3/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
4.2/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 50.3/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 43.7

30-Day Momentum

29
+6.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 46.9 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,859
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,118.17
Current Value
$18,710.31
Period P&L
$-407.85
Max Drawdown
-17.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+5.17%
Worst Trade
-3.38%
Avg Trade Return
-0.31%
Avg Hold Time
9.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$259,874.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-407.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-407.85
Gross Return
-2.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $19,118.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:25pm ET $128.35 149 $19,124.16
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $129.05 149 $19,228.45 $19,312.01 +$104.29
(+0.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
5.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET $132.66 145 $19,235.70
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $128.66 145 $18,656.42 $18,732.73 $-579.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:30pm ET $126.36 148 $18,701.28
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET $122.10 148 $18,070.06 $18,101.51 $-631.22
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 11:50am ET $125.14 144 $18,020.15
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET $120.99 144 $17,421.84 $17,503.20 $-598.31
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET $120.00 145 $17,400.00
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $126.20 145 $18,299.00 $18,402.20 +$899.00
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
17d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $125.07 147 $18,386.02
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $131.47 147 $19,326.09 $19,342.27 +$940.07
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $130.53 148 $19,318.44
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $126.26 148 $18,686.48 $18,710.31 $-631.96
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,710.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,710.31
Total Return: +87.10%
Back to Marcus Reversal