Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 07:54:17

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 18.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 18.4

30-Day Momentum

6
+0.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.4 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,869
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,916.90
Current Value
$11,836.36
Period P&L
$-2,080.55
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
7 / 17
Best Trade
+6.41%
Worst Trade
-3.59%
Avg Trade Return
-0.61%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$583,863.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,080.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,080.55
Gross Return
-14.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.95%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,916.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET $1,064.71 12 $12,776.52
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,125.53 12 $13,506.36 $14,565.63 +$729.84
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET $1,083.91 13 $14,090.83
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,046.63 13 $13,606.19 $14,080.99 $-484.64
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,044.13 13 $13,573.63
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:55am ET $1,012.56 13 $13,163.28 $13,670.64 $-410.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,024.40 13 $13,317.20
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,090.07 13 $14,170.91 $14,524.35 +$853.71
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,048.31 13 $13,628.03
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $1,014.87 13 $13,193.31 $14,089.63 $-434.72
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $1,058.96 13 $13,766.54
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,046.36 13 $13,602.68 $13,925.77 $-163.86
(-1.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
5.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET $1,052.73 13 $13,685.55
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET $1,020.78 13 $13,270.14 $13,510.36 $-415.41
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 11:45am ET $1,013.41 13 $13,174.27
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET $983.00 13 $12,779.00 $13,115.09 $-395.27
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $994.52 13 $12,928.76
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:55am ET $963.00 13 $12,519.00 $12,705.33 $-409.76
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 10:00am ET $911.70 13 $11,852.10
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $882.85 13 $11,477.05 $12,330.28 $-375.05
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:05am ET $909.56 13 $11,824.28
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET $955.52 13 $12,421.76 $12,927.76 +$597.48
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET $934.46 13 $12,147.98
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $902.29 13 $11,729.77 $12,509.55 $-418.21
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $956.07 13 $12,428.91
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $921.77 13 $11,983.01 $12,063.65 $-445.90
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET $915.33 13 $11,899.29
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $884.98 13 $11,504.74 $11,669.10 $-394.55
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $914.31 12 $10,971.72
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $882.69 12 $10,592.23 $11,289.61 $-379.49
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:45am ET $881.84 12 $10,582.08
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET $855.30 12 $10,263.66 $10,971.19 $-318.42
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $935.50 11 $10,290.50
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:55am ET $983.87 11 $10,822.57 $11,503.26 +$532.07
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
18 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 11:45am ET $987.28 11 $10,860.08
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 10:05am ET $951.80 11 $10,469.80 $11,112.98 $-390.28
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 12:05pm ET $976.03 11 $10,736.33
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $1,033.40 11 $11,367.40 $11,744.05 +$631.07
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
20 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:35am ET $1,060.73 11 $11,668.03
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:45am ET $1,114.23 11 $12,256.53 $12,332.55 +$588.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
21 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $1,113.19 11 $12,245.09
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET $1,078.16 11 $11,859.71 $11,947.17 $-385.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:35am ET $1,063.93 11 $11,703.23
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $1,119.92 11 $12,319.12 $12,563.06 +$615.89
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,150.60 10 $11,506.00
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,113.34 10 $11,133.40 $12,190.46 $-372.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $1,127.43 10 $11,274.30
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET $1,092.02 10 $10,920.20 $11,836.36 $-354.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,836.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,836.36
Total Return: +18.36%
Back to Marcus Reversal