Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:58:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.4/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 17.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 17.3

30-Day Momentum

3
-11.0%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,537
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,331.03
Current Value
$11,503.26
Period P&L
$-827.78
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
8 / 16
Best Trade
+6.41%
Worst Trade
-3.59%
Avg Trade Return
-0.21%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$608,155.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-827.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-827.78
Gross Return
-6.71%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,331.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 1:10pm ET $922.60 13 $11,993.80
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:50am ET $976.57 13 $12,695.41 $13,032.67 +$701.61
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 2:05pm ET $990.35 13 $12,874.55
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 9:50am ET $1,041.51 13 $13,539.57 $13,697.68 +$665.02
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET $1,041.66 13 $13,541.58
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:05am ET $1,094.13 13 $14,223.63 $14,379.73 +$682.05
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET $1,090.65 13 $14,178.39
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 2:25pm ET $1,056.63 13 $13,736.19 $13,937.53 $-442.19
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 2:30pm ET $1,048.93 13 $13,636.03
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 10:30am ET $1,017.37 13 $13,225.81 $13,527.32 $-410.21
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 11:55am ET $1,011.16 13 $13,145.08
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 9:30am ET $979.79 13 $12,737.27 $13,119.51 $-407.81
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 11:50am ET $1,015.34 12 $12,184.08
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 9:35am ET $1,075.03 12 $12,900.36 $13,835.79 +$716.28
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET $1,064.71 12 $12,776.52
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,125.53 12 $13,506.36 $14,565.63 +$729.84
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET $1,083.91 13 $14,090.83
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,046.63 13 $13,606.19 $14,080.99 $-484.64
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,044.13 13 $13,573.63
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:55am ET $1,012.56 13 $13,163.28 $13,670.64 $-410.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,024.40 13 $13,317.20
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,090.07 13 $14,170.91 $14,524.35 +$853.71
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,048.31 13 $13,628.03
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $1,014.87 13 $13,193.31 $14,089.63 $-434.72
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $1,058.96 13 $13,766.54
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,046.36 13 $13,602.68 $13,925.77 $-163.86
(-1.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
5.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET $1,052.73 13 $13,685.55
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET $1,020.78 13 $13,270.14 $13,510.36 $-415.41
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 11:45am ET $1,013.41 13 $13,174.27
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET $983.00 13 $12,779.00 $13,115.09 $-395.27
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $994.52 13 $12,928.76
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:55am ET $963.00 13 $12,519.00 $12,705.33 $-409.76
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 10:00am ET $911.70 13 $11,852.10
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET $882.85 13 $11,477.05 $12,330.28 $-375.05
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:05am ET $909.56 13 $11,824.28
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET $955.52 13 $12,421.76 $12,927.76 +$597.48
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET $934.46 13 $12,147.98
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $902.29 13 $11,729.77 $12,509.55 $-418.21
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $956.07 13 $12,428.91
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $921.77 13 $11,983.01 $12,063.65 $-445.90
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET $915.33 13 $11,899.29
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET $884.98 13 $11,504.74 $11,669.10 $-394.55
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $914.31 12 $10,971.72
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET $882.69 12 $10,592.23 $11,289.61 $-379.49
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:45am ET $881.84 12 $10,582.08
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET $855.30 12 $10,263.66 $10,971.19 $-318.42
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $935.50 11 $10,290.50
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:55am ET $983.87 11 $10,822.57 $11,503.26 +$532.07
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,503.26
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,503.26
Total Return: +15.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal