Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:03:19

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
1.4/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 20.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 18.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-9.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,235
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,946.88
Current Value
$11,361.04
Period P&L
$-585.86
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
5 / 9
Best Trade
+6.42%
Worst Trade
-3.29%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
11.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$362,340.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-585.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-585.86
Gross Return
-4.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,946.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET $89.99 132 $11,879.28
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET $94.87 132 $12,522.84 $12,525.05 +$643.56
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 1:25pm ET $95.81 130 $12,454.96
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET $101.96 130 $13,254.80 $13,324.89 +$799.84
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET $100.83 132 $13,308.90
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 9:45am ET $105.94 132 $13,984.08 $14,000.07 +$675.18
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 11:40am ET $104.89 133 $13,950.37
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 1:30pm ET $101.74 133 $13,531.42 $13,581.12 $-418.95
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:30am ET $102.17 132 $13,485.78
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 1:35pm ET $99.09 132 $13,079.55 $13,174.89 $-406.23
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $97.88 134 $13,115.59
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $98.52 134 $13,201.68 $13,260.98 +$86.09
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET $98.61 134 $13,213.07
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET $103.98 134 $13,933.32 $13,981.23 +$720.25
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
18d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $103.11 135 $13,919.85
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $101.54 135 $13,708.57 $13,769.96 $-211.28
(-1.5%)
📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $95.91 143 $13,715.13
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET $92.82 143 $13,273.97 $13,328.80 $-441.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 10:25am ET $90.17 147 $13,254.99
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:25am ET $87.43 147 $12,852.21 $12,926.02 $-402.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $87.87 147 $12,916.89
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $84.97 147 $12,491.32 $12,500.45 $-425.57
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $86.03 145 $12,474.35
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.37 145 $12,088.65 $12,114.75 $-385.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.12 145 $12,052.40
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $80.55 145 $11,679.75 $11,742.10 $-372.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
14 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $80.06 146 $11,688.76
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $77.45 146 $11,307.70 $11,361.04 $-381.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,361.04
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,361.04
Total Return: +13.61%
Back to Marcus Reversal