Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:15:28

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 4.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-2.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,499
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,618.86
Current Value
$7,791.77
Period P&L
$1,172.92
Max Drawdown
-45.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+8.78%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.16%
Avg Hold Time
11.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$242,975.27
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,172.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,172.92
Gross Return
+17.72%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,618.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 11:25am ET $84.49 78 $6,589.83
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET $88.79 78 $6,925.62 $6,937.88 +$335.79
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 10:50am ET $91.30 75 $6,847.50
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET $95.99 75 $7,199.36 $7,289.74 +$351.86
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:10am ET $96.16 75 $7,212.00
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET $101.19 75 $7,588.88 $7,666.62 +$376.88
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 1:40pm ET $105.18 72 $7,572.60
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 3:50pm ET $102.02 72 $7,345.08 $7,439.10 $-227.52
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:45am ET $101.96 72 $7,341.12
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 9:35am ET $98.34 72 $7,080.48 $7,178.46 $-260.64
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 10:40am ET $98.22 73 $7,170.06
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET $103.24 73 $7,536.52 $7,544.92 +$366.46
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 10:45am ET $106.18 71 $7,538.43
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET $111.52 71 $7,917.92 $7,924.41 +$379.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET $111.09 71 $7,887.39
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET $107.70 71 $7,646.70 $7,683.72 $-240.69
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:55am ET $108.67 70 $7,606.55
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $118.21 70 $8,274.70 $8,351.87 +$668.15
(+8.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
19d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $118.16 70 $8,271.20
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $117.45 70 $8,221.27 $8,301.94 $-49.93
(-0.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET $121.44 68 $8,258.26
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET $117.13 68 $7,964.84 $8,008.52 $-293.42
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET $121.44 68 $8,258.26
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $115.07 68 $7,824.42 $7,574.68 $-433.84
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
33.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $114.86 65 $7,465.90
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 11:15am ET $120.62 65 $7,840.30 $7,949.08 +$374.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET $118.73 66 $7,836.18
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET $114.76 66 $7,574.15 $7,687.05 $-262.03
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $112.15 68 $7,626.20
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 68 $7,358.96 $7,419.81 $-267.24
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $108.99 68 $7,411.32
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:20am ET $114.46 68 $7,783.28 $7,791.77 +$371.96
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,791.77
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,208.23
Total Return: -22.08%
Back to Marcus Reversal