MRNA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 48 trades in period
+115.89%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,918.74
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$4,131.03
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.0
30-Day Momentum
17
+3.7%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.3
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,749
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$4,131.03
Current Value
$8,918.74
Period P&L
$4,787.65
Max Drawdown
-73.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
27 /
21
Best Trade
+10.69%
Worst Trade
-4.11%
Avg Trade Return
+1.73%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$602,939.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,787.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,787.65
Gross Return
+115.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+115.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $4,131.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:50pm ET | $23.61 | 174 | $4,107.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:45am ET | $24.90 | 174 | $4,332.60 | $4,341.61 |
+$225.33 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:55am ET | $23.50 | 184 | $4,323.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $24.72 | 184 | $4,548.48 | $4,567.01 |
+$225.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $26.05 | 175 | $4,558.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:25pm ET | $25.20 | 175 | $4,409.13 | $4,417.39 |
$-149.63 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:25pm ET | $24.43 | 180 | $4,397.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET | $23.64 | 180 | $4,255.20 | $4,275.19 |
$-142.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 2:55pm ET | $23.53 | 181 | $4,258.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:45pm ET | $24.74 | 181 | $4,477.04 | $4,493.29 |
+$218.11 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 9:40am ET | $24.95 | 180 | $4,491.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 3:55pm ET | $24.18 | 180 | $4,352.58 | $4,354.85 |
$-138.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $24.06 | 180 | $4,330.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $25.45 | 180 | $4,580.78 | $4,604.84 |
+$249.98 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:40am ET | $27.16 | 169 | $4,589.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:40am ET | $28.65 | 169 | $4,841.85 | $4,857.22 |
+$252.38 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:45pm ET | $29.29 | 165 | $4,832.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $30.76 | 165 | $5,074.58 | $5,098.95 |
+$241.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 2:30pm ET | $31.99 | 159 | $5,085.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 3:50pm ET | $31.03 | 159 | $4,932.98 | $4,946.31 |
$-152.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 2:35pm ET | $35.35 | 139 | $4,913.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 9:55am ET | $34.16 | 139 | $4,748.24 | $4,780.62 |
$-165.69 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $32.16 | 148 | $4,759.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 2:10pm ET | $31.19 | 148 | $4,616.12 | $4,637.06 |
$-143.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $30.88 | 150 | $4,631.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 11:05am ET | $29.82 | 150 | $4,473.00 | $4,478.81 |
$-158.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $30.74 | 145 | $4,457.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $32.32 | 145 | $4,685.68 | $4,707.19 |
+$228.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.34 | 133 | $4,700.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $34.27 | 133 | $4,557.25 | $4,564.21 |
$-142.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:25pm ET | $34.77 | 131 | $4,554.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.57 | 131 | $4,397.02 | $4,406.36 |
$-157.86 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:35am ET | $39.99 | 110 | $4,398.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $42.05 | 110 | $4,625.45 | $4,632.90 |
+$226.55 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $41.87 | 110 | $4,605.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.38 | 110 | $4,881.25 | $4,909.00 |
+$276.10 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $53.13 | 92 | $4,887.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $51.39 | 92 | $4,727.51 | $4,749.01 |
$-159.99 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $46.81 | 101 | $4,727.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.15 | 101 | $5,065.08 | $5,086.77 |
+$337.75 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $43.94 | 115 | $5,053.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.51 | 115 | $5,348.65 | $5,382.32 |
+$295.55 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.38 | 118 | $5,354.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $43.96 | 118 | $5,187.28 | $5,214.76 |
$-167.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $43.53 | 119 | $5,180.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $42.17 | 119 | $5,018.23 | $5,052.92 |
$-161.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $41.91 | 120 | $5,029.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $40.32 | 120 | $4,838.40 | $4,862.12 |
$-190.80 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $41.13 | 118 | $4,853.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $41.91 | 118 | $4,945.38 | $4,954.16 |
+$92.04 (+1.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $37.12 | 133 | $4,936.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $39.18 | 133 | $5,210.94 | $5,228.80 |
+$274.64 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.37 | 123 | $5,211.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.90 | 123 | $5,768.45 | $5,785.74 |
+$556.94 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:40am ET | $46.46 | 124 | $5,761.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 2:00pm ET | $49.00 | 124 | $6,076.00 | $6,100.70 |
+$314.96 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $49.68 | 122 | $6,060.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.49 | 122 | $6,403.78 | $6,443.52 |
+$342.82 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.54 | 130 | $6,440.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.04 | 130 | $6,765.20 | $6,767.87 |
+$324.35 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $51.28 | 131 | $6,717.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $54.13 | 131 | $7,091.03 | $7,141.21 |
+$373.34 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:25pm ET | $49.81 | 143 | $7,123.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.10 | 143 | $7,593.30 | $7,611.37 |
+$470.16 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.33 | 132 | $7,567.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $55.60 | 132 | $7,339.86 | $7,383.67 |
$-227.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $49.65 | 148 | $7,348.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $52.15 | 148 | $7,718.20 | $7,753.67 |
+$370.00 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $53.22 | 145 | $7,716.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.35 | 145 | $8,170.75 | $8,207.52 |
+$453.85 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.98 | 152 | $8,205.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $52.34 | 152 | $7,955.68 | $7,958.06 |
$-249.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $51.68 | 153 | $7,907.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $54.33 | 153 | $8,312.49 | $8,363.51 |
+$405.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.64 | 161 | $8,314.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $54.33 | 161 | $8,747.03 | $8,796.50 |
+$432.99 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $51.69 | 170 | $8,787.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.11 | 170 | $8,518.70 | $8,527.90 |
$-268.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:00am ET | $48.98 | 174 | $8,522.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:20pm ET | $51.43 | 174 | $8,948.82 | $8,954.20 |
+$426.30 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $50.08 | 178 | $8,914.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 178 | $8,563.94 | $8,603.88 |
$-350.32 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $48.60 | 177 | $8,602.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.99 | 177 | $9,202.23 | $9,203.91 |
+$600.03 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $50.98 | 180 | $9,176.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 180 | $9,676.80 | $9,704.31 |
+$500.40 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.10 | 182 | $9,664.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.15 | 182 | $10,219.76 | $10,259.87 |
+$555.56 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $54.60 | 187 | $10,210.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $52.84 | 187 | $9,881.08 | $9,930.75 |
$-329.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $50.02 | 198 | $9,903.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.51 | 198 | $9,604.98 | $9,631.77 |
$-298.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.53 | 207 | $9,631.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $44.92 | 207 | $9,299.47 | $9,299.54 |
$-332.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $47.02 | 197 | $9,263.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $45.09 | 197 | $8,882.73 | $8,918.74 |
$-380.80 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,918.74
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,081.26
Total Return:
-10.81%