MU Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 47 trades in period
+39.04%
Last 6 Months Return
$45,544.81
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$32,756.72
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
68
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.2/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
68.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 67.8
30-Day Momentum
87
+48.6%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
4.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 100.0
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+19 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,319
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
133 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$32,756.72
Current Value
$45,544.81
Period P&L
$12,788.12
Max Drawdown
-27.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
23 /
24
Best Trade
+14.91%
Worst Trade
-8.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$3,580,517.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$12,788.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$12,788.12
Gross Return
+39.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 133 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $32,756.72 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:45am ET | $237.82 | 137 | $32,580.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $253.46 | 137 | $34,724.02 | $34,900.06 |
+$2,143.37 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 10:35am ET | $242.13 | 144 | $34,866.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $233.50 | 144 | $33,624.00 | $33,657.34 |
$-1,242.72 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET | $246.86 | 136 | $33,572.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $231.28 | 136 | $31,453.40 | $31,537.78 |
$-2,119.56 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $204.18 | 154 | $31,443.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:20pm ET | $197.63 | 154 | $30,435.02 | $30,529.08 |
$-1,008.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $224.62 | 135 | $30,323.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $239.00 | 135 | $32,265.00 | $32,470.38 |
+$1,941.30 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $232.39 | 139 | $32,302.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:20am ET | $225.24 | 139 | $31,308.36 | $31,476.53 |
$-993.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:30am ET | $236.25 | 133 | $31,421.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 11:35am ET | $248.13 | 133 | $33,001.29 | $33,056.57 |
+$1,580.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 2:50pm ET | $252.35 | 130 | $32,805.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET | $244.35 | 130 | $31,765.50 | $32,016.57 |
$-1,040.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:40am ET | $243.89 | 131 | $31,949.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $236.40 | 131 | $30,968.40 | $31,035.38 |
$-981.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:55am ET | $226.70 | 136 | $30,831.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $260.51 | 136 | $35,429.36 | $35,633.54 |
+$4,598.16 (+14.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $285.88 | 124 | $35,448.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.59 | 124 | $37,521.16 | $37,706.20 |
+$2,072.66 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $313.80 | 120 | $37,656.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $331.89 | 120 | $39,826.80 | $39,877.00 |
+$2,170.80 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $341.53 | 116 | $39,617.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $328.58 | 116 | $38,115.29 | $38,374.81 |
$-1,502.19 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $338.89 | 113 | $38,294.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 113 | $40,657.46 | $40,737.70 |
+$2,362.89 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $368.71 | 110 | $40,558.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $389.01 | 110 | $42,791.10 | $42,970.70 |
+$2,233.00 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $400.64 | 107 | $42,868.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $385.13 | 107 | $41,208.91 | $41,311.12 |
$-1,659.58 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $407.07 | 101 | $41,114.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $429.22 | 101 | $43,351.22 | $43,548.26 |
+$2,237.14 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $419.84 | 103 | $43,243.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.52 | 103 | $46,094.56 | $46,399.30 |
+$2,851.04 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $437.58 | 106 | $46,383.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $418.51 | 106 | $44,362.06 | $44,377.52 |
$-2,021.78 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $393.95 | 112 | $44,121.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $381.06 | 112 | $42,678.72 | $42,934.39 |
$-1,443.13 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $380.48 | 112 | $42,613.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $384.19 | 112 | $43,029.28 | $43,349.91 |
+$415.52 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.61 | 108 | $43,265.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $421.36 | 108 | $45,506.88 | $45,590.91 |
+$2,241.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $413.74 | 110 | $45,511.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $436.20 | 110 | $47,982.00 | $48,061.18 |
+$2,470.27 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $420.70 | 114 | $47,960.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $405.40 | 114 | $46,216.17 | $46,316.98 |
$-1,744.20 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $409.92 | 112 | $45,911.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.00 | 112 | $43,120.00 | $43,525.55 |
$-2,791.43 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:15pm ET | $402.46 | 108 | $43,465.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $387.07 | 108 | $41,803.56 | $41,863.43 |
$-1,662.12 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $385.19 | 108 | $41,600.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $372.08 | 108 | $40,184.64 | $40,447.55 |
$-1,415.88 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $410.74 | 98 | $40,252.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $398.11 | 98 | $39,014.78 | $39,209.82 |
$-1,237.73 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $419.62 | 93 | $39,025.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 93 | $41,528.22 | $41,713.01 |
+$2,503.19 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $465.23 | 89 | $41,405.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 89 | $37,736.00 | $38,043.17 |
$-3,669.84 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $439.64 | 86 | $37,809.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $426.03 | 86 | $36,638.58 | $36,872.28 |
$-1,170.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $415.13 | 88 | $36,531.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $401.88 | 88 | $35,365.44 | $35,706.27 |
$-1,166.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $390.80 | 91 | $35,562.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.00 | 91 | $34,307.00 | $34,450.47 |
$-1,255.80 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $373.54 | 92 | $34,365.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $361.26 | 92 | $33,235.46 | $33,320.45 |
$-1,130.02 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $362.65 | 91 | $33,001.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $345.18 | 91 | $31,411.83 | $31,731.13 |
$-1,589.32 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $314.28 | 100 | $31,428.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $331.30 | 100 | $33,130.50 | $33,433.63 |
+$1,702.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $372.23 | 89 | $33,128.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 89 | $30,340.63 | $30,645.79 |
$-2,787.84 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.42 | 81 | $30,328.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 81 | $33,548.98 | $33,866.75 |
+$3,220.96 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $401.04 | 84 | $33,686.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $423.13 | 84 | $35,542.50 | $35,722.31 |
+$1,855.56 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.43 | 85 | $35,396.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $437.65 | 85 | $37,200.25 | $37,526.01 |
+$1,803.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $445.49 | 84 | $37,421.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $469.57 | 84 | $39,443.88 | $39,548.73 |
+$2,022.72 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $453.00 | 87 | $39,411.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $438.11 | 87 | $38,116.00 | $38,253.73 |
$-1,295.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $442.54 | 86 | $38,058.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $466.80 | 86 | $40,144.80 | $40,340.09 |
+$2,086.36 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $478.16 | 84 | $40,165.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $502.30 | 84 | $42,193.62 | $42,368.27 |
+$2,028.18 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $522.35 | 81 | $42,310.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 81 | $40,683.87 | $40,741.79 |
$-1,626.48 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $517.88 | 78 | $40,394.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $545.55 | 78 | $42,552.90 | $42,900.05 |
+$2,158.26 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $573.63 | 74 | $42,448.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $609.37 | 74 | $45,093.38 | $45,544.81 |
+$2,644.76 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$45,544.81
Net Profit/Loss:
+$35,544.81
Total Return:
+355.45%