Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.0/35
Total Return
17.3/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 43.2/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 40.2

30-Day Momentum

2
-13.0%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,527
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$26,588.83
Current Value
$22,002.55
Period P&L
$-4,586.30
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
7 / 14
Best Trade
+11.34%
Worst Trade
-9.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.82%
Avg Hold Time
7.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$997,863.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,586.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,586.30
Gross Return
-17.25%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $26,588.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 23, 2025 11:20am ET $110.51 242 $26,743.18
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 3:10pm ET $116.14 242 $28,106.12 $28,196.21 +$1,362.94
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $113.18 249 $28,182.07
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:55pm ET $109.59 249 $27,287.91 $27,302.05 $-894.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $111.97 243 $27,209.88
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET $108.61 243 $26,391.02 $26,483.19 $-818.86
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET $105.00 252 $26,458.74
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 9:30am ET $100.40 252 $25,300.80 $25,325.25 $-1,157.94
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $98.12 258 $25,314.96
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 10:35am ET $94.95 258 $24,497.13 $24,507.41 $-817.83
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 1:10pm ET $94.23 260 $24,499.72
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $91.24 260 $23,721.10 $23,728.79 $-778.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $91.65 258 $23,644.41
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $88.61 258 $22,860.09 $22,944.47 $-784.32
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:35pm ET $89.69 255 $22,869.68
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $83.18 255 $21,210.90 $21,285.69 $-1,658.78
(-7.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:25am ET $83.89 253 $21,222.91
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET $81.36 253 $20,585.34 $20,648.13 $-637.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $80.63 256 $20,641.28
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $81.42 256 $20,842.24 $20,849.10 +$200.96
(+1.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $82.20 253 $20,796.60
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET $79.64 253 $20,148.41 $20,200.91 $-648.19
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $75.53 267 $20,166.51
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $79.44 267 $21,210.48 $21,244.88 +$1,043.97
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $84.60 251 $21,234.60
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $94.19 251 $23,642.37 $23,652.65 +$2,407.77
(+11.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 11:20am ET $96.31 245 $23,596.37
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET $93.18 245 $22,827.88 $22,884.16 $-768.49
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET $91.08 251 $22,862.33
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:25pm ET $95.66 251 $24,010.66 $24,032.49 +$1,148.33
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $92.82 258 $23,946.30
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $97.67 258 $25,198.86 $25,285.05 +$1,252.56
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET $98.63 256 $25,248.00
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $103.62 256 $26,527.79 $26,564.84 +$1,279.79
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $105.72 251 $26,535.72
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $96.05 251 $24,109.05 $24,138.17 $-2,426.67
(-9.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET $96.14 251 $24,131.14
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 11:30am ET $93.25 251 $23,407.00 $23,414.03 $-724.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET $93.22 251 $23,399.47
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $90.39 251 $22,686.64 $22,701.19 $-712.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:05pm ET $92.04 246 $22,643.07
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:25am ET $89.21 246 $21,944.43 $22,002.55 $-698.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $22,002.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$12,002.55
Total Return: +120.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal