NIO Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 42 trades in period
-9.01%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,324.69
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$8,049.88
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.4
30-Day Momentum
54
+18.4%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 66.4
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+49 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,012
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,049.88
Current Value
$7,324.69
Period P&L
$-725.22
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
16 /
26
Best Trade
+9.30%
Worst Trade
-8.11%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$540,590.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-725.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-725.22
Gross Return
-9.01%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.01%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,049.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $7.20 | 1,105 | $7,958.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.92 | 1,105 | $7,645.05 | $7,650.56 |
$-313.71 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 11:15am ET | $6.93 | 1,103 | $7,643.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 2:40pm ET | $6.71 | 1,103 | $7,401.13 | $7,407.90 |
$-242.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 2:55pm ET | $6.62 | 1,119 | $7,407.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $6.42 | 1,119 | $7,183.98 | $7,184.10 |
$-223.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:55am ET | $6.28 | 1,144 | $7,184.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.06 | 1,144 | $6,937.56 | $6,937.57 |
$-246.53 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $6.07 | 1,142 | $6,932.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.85 | 1,142 | $6,682.18 | $6,687.70 |
$-249.87 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $5.92 | 1,130 | $6,687.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $5.73 | 1,130 | $6,475.13 | $6,475.71 |
$-211.99 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $5.48 | 1,181 | $6,472.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.78 | 1,181 | $6,826.18 | $6,829.77 |
+$354.06 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.50 | 1,242 | $6,824.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:05pm ET | $5.31 | 1,242 | $6,588.81 | $6,593.79 |
$-235.98 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $5.35 | 1,232 | $6,591.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET | $5.17 | 1,232 | $6,369.56 | $6,372.15 |
$-221.64 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:20am ET | $5.08 | 1,255 | $6,371.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $4.88 | 1,255 | $6,124.40 | $6,125.30 |
$-246.86 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $5.07 | 1,209 | $6,125.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:45am ET | $4.91 | 1,209 | $5,938.37 | $5,938.63 |
$-186.67 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $5.16 | 1,150 | $5,934.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $5.01 | 1,150 | $5,755.75 | $5,760.38 |
$-178.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 12:40pm ET | $4.97 | 1,160 | $5,759.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.25 | 1,160 | $6,087.10 | $6,088.08 |
+$327.70 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 11:30am ET | $5.61 | 1,085 | $6,086.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $5.16 | 1,085 | $5,593.18 | $5,594.40 |
$-493.68 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $5.15 | 1,087 | $5,592.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.97 | 1,087 | $5,396.96 | $5,398.74 |
$-195.66 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $4.90 | 1,101 | $5,394.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $4.75 | 1,101 | $5,229.75 | $5,233.59 |
$-165.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.78 | 1,094 | $5,229.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.63 | 1,094 | $5,059.75 | $5,064.02 |
$-169.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $4.87 | 1,040 | $5,059.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.71 | 1,040 | $4,898.40 | $4,902.82 |
$-161.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.63 | 1,060 | $4,902.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.86 | 1,060 | $5,151.49 | $5,151.82 |
+$248.99 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.66 | 1,105 | $5,149.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.94 | 1,105 | $5,454.28 | $5,456.80 |
+$304.98 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.81 | 1,135 | $5,453.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.53 | 1,135 | $5,141.55 | $5,144.67 |
$-312.12 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:00pm ET | $4.53 | 1,136 | $5,140.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,136 | $5,413.04 | $5,417.31 |
+$272.64 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,138 | $5,416.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $5.00 | 1,138 | $5,689.54 | $5,690.32 |
+$273.01 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $4.93 | 1,155 | $5,688.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.22 | 1,155 | $6,029.10 | $6,031.04 |
+$340.72 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $5.20 | 1,158 | $6,027.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $5.05 | 1,158 | $5,846.16 | $5,849.81 |
$-181.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.91 | 1,190 | $5,848.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,190 | $5,664.40 | $5,665.36 |
$-184.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.51 | 1,254 | $5,661.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.74 | 1,254 | $5,950.23 | $5,953.78 |
+$288.42 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.74 | 1,256 | $5,953.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.18 | 1,256 | $6,506.96 | $6,507.42 |
+$553.64 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $5.61 | 1,160 | $6,505.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.89 | 1,160 | $6,834.02 | $6,835.47 |
+$328.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:55am ET | $6.11 | 1,119 | $6,831.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.90 | 1,119 | $6,602.10 | $6,606.08 |
$-229.39 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.73 | 1,152 | $6,601.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.55 | 1,152 | $6,391.41 | $6,396.41 |
$-209.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $5.82 | 1,098 | $6,391.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $5.64 | 1,098 | $6,192.72 | $6,197.23 |
$-199.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.41 | 1,145 | $6,196.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $5.71 | 1,145 | $6,537.95 | $6,539.13 |
+$341.90 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET | $6.11 | 1,071 | $6,538.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.42 | 1,071 | $6,874.00 | $6,874.67 |
+$335.54 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.13 | 1,121 | $6,871.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.45 | 1,121 | $7,224.85 | $7,227.79 |
+$353.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.12 | 1,180 | $7,224.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.52 | 1,180 | $7,693.60 | $7,697.19 |
+$469.40 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.47 | 1,190 | $7,693.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.79 | 1,190 | $8,078.31 | $8,082.15 |
+$384.96 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.74 | 1,198 | $8,075.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.53 | 1,198 | $7,824.62 | $7,831.05 |
$-251.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $6.53 | 1,198 | $7,828.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.32 | 1,198 | $7,571.36 | $7,573.48 |
$-257.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET | $6.20 | 1,220 | $7,570.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,220 | $8,052.00 | $8,055.38 |
+$481.90 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,286 | $8,049.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.01 | 1,286 | $7,735.29 | $7,740.70 |
$-314.68 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $6.04 | 1,282 | $7,739.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,282 | $7,323.43 | $7,324.69 |
$-416.01 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,324.69
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,675.31
Total Return:
-26.75%