Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:21:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.9/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 38.7/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 33.1

30-Day Momentum

53
+19.4%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.8 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+20 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,651
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,484.55
Current Value
$14,941.63
Period P&L
$2,457.09
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
8 / 3
Best Trade
+8.20%
Worst Trade
-3.10%
Avg Trade Return
+1.91%
Avg Hold Time
15.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$282,420.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,457.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,457.09
Gross Return
+19.68%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,484.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 9:40am ET $610.53 20 $12,210.60
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $611.13 20 $12,222.60 $12,232.94 +$12.00
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET $582.10 21 $12,224.10
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET $612.93 21 $12,871.53 $12,880.37 +$647.43
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET $613.76 20 $12,275.20
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $618.50 20 $12,370.00 $12,975.17 +$94.80
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET $612.67 21 $12,865.97
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $621.00 21 $13,041.00 $13,150.21 +$175.04
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:40am ET $623.89 21 $13,101.69
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:45am ET $604.57 21 $12,695.97 $12,744.49 $-405.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 1:35pm ET $598.92 21 $12,577.32
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $615.05 21 $12,916.05 $13,083.22 +$338.73
(+2.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $598.59 21 $12,570.39
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:30am ET $589.52 21 $12,379.92 $12,892.75 $-190.47
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $586.30 21 $12,312.30
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $568.35 21 $11,935.35 $12,515.80 $-376.95
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $563.00 22 $12,386.00
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $609.17 22 $13,401.74 $13,531.54 +$1,015.74
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $604.28 22 $13,294.16
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 2:30pm ET $634.62 22 $13,961.64 $14,199.02 +$667.48
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $637.82 22 $14,031.93
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $671.57 22 $14,774.54 $14,941.63 +$742.61
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,941.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,941.63
Total Return: +49.42%
Back to Marcus Reversal