SMCI Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 45 trades in period
-34.40%
Last 6 Months Return
$1,583.09
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$2,413.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
14
+1.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 17.8
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,217
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$2,413.04
Current Value
$1,583.09
Period P&L
$-830.01
Max Drawdown
-88.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
13 /
32
Best Trade
+6.14%
Worst Trade
-8.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.85%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$170,161.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-830.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-830.01
Gross Return
-34.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-34.40%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,413.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:40am ET | $42.36 | 56 | $2,372.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $41.01 | 56 | $2,296.28 | $2,337.22 |
$-75.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:50am ET | $40.55 | 57 | $2,311.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $39.17 | 57 | $2,232.41 | $2,258.27 |
$-78.94 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $38.52 | 58 | $2,234.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $37.14 | 58 | $2,154.12 | $2,178.23 |
$-80.04 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.12 | 63 | $2,149.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 10:25am ET | $35.92 | 63 | $2,262.96 | $2,291.63 |
+$113.40 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
54m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $34.57 | 66 | $2,281.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $33.43 | 66 | $2,206.38 | $2,216.40 |
$-75.23 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:35pm ET | $32.30 | 68 | $2,196.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $31.12 | 68 | $2,116.16 | $2,136.16 |
$-80.24 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $32.03 | 66 | $2,113.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET | $33.84 | 66 | $2,233.44 | $2,255.62 |
+$119.46 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 11:05am ET | $33.57 | 67 | $2,248.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $35.33 | 67 | $2,366.78 | $2,373.54 |
+$117.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 2:00pm ET | $34.68 | 68 | $2,357.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $33.38 | 68 | $2,269.50 | $2,285.14 |
$-88.40 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:30am ET | $33.20 | 68 | $2,257.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:45am ET | $32.05 | 68 | $2,179.40 | $2,206.94 |
$-78.20 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 11:40am ET | $31.23 | 70 | $2,186.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $30.27 | 70 | $2,118.90 | $2,139.74 |
$-67.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:55am ET | $30.08 | 71 | $2,135.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 12:45pm ET | $29.15 | 71 | $2,069.65 | $2,073.71 |
$-66.02 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $30.89 | 67 | $2,069.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $29.94 | 67 | $2,005.98 | $2,010.40 |
$-63.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:15pm ET | $29.85 | 67 | $1,999.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $28.81 | 67 | $1,930.27 | $1,941.05 |
$-69.35 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:50pm ET | $28.20 | 68 | $1,917.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $29.65 | 68 | $2,016.20 | $2,039.82 |
+$98.77 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.52 | 66 | $2,014.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $32.33 | 66 | $2,133.77 | $2,159.28 |
+$119.45 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $32.93 | 65 | $2,140.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $31.90 | 65 | $2,073.18 | $2,092.33 |
$-66.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $30.98 | 67 | $2,075.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.02 | 67 | $2,011.34 | $2,028.01 |
$-64.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $31.55 | 64 | $2,018.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.48 | 64 | $1,950.72 | $1,959.85 |
$-68.16 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:05pm ET | $29.66 | 66 | $1,957.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $28.73 | 66 | $1,895.85 | $1,898.14 |
$-61.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.68 | 59 | $1,869.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $30.61 | 59 | $1,806.01 | $1,835.03 |
$-63.11 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $33.79 | 54 | $1,824.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $33.47 | 54 | $1,807.65 | $1,817.77 |
$-17.25 (-0.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $29.67 | 61 | $1,809.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.25 | 61 | $1,906.25 | $1,914.15 |
+$96.38 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $32.00 | 59 | $1,888.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $30.95 | 59 | $1,826.17 | $1,852.32 |
$-61.83 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.81 | 56 | $1,837.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $31.79 | 56 | $1,780.32 | $1,795.28 |
$-57.04 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $32.22 | 55 | $1,772.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.88 | 55 | $1,698.40 | $1,721.58 |
$-73.70 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.78 | 55 | $1,693.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $29.77 | 55 | $1,637.35 | $1,665.76 |
$-55.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $32.44 | 51 | $1,654.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.39 | 51 | $1,600.89 | $1,612.21 |
$-53.55 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $30.02 | 53 | $1,591.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $31.68 | 53 | $1,679.30 | $1,700.45 |
+$88.24 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $31.85 | 53 | $1,688.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 2:45pm ET | $30.86 | 53 | $1,635.84 | $1,648.25 |
$-52.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $31.04 | 53 | $1,645.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $32.65 | 53 | $1,730.71 | $1,733.90 |
+$85.65 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $31.00 | 55 | $1,705.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.05 | 55 | $1,652.75 | $1,681.43 |
$-52.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.07 | 76 | $1,676.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $21.33 | 76 | $1,621.46 | $1,625.95 |
$-55.48 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $21.73 | 74 | $1,607.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.06 | 74 | $1,706.44 | $1,724.74 |
+$98.79 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $23.43 | 73 | $1,710.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.65 | 73 | $1,653.45 | $1,667.44 |
$-57.30 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $21.66 | 76 | $1,646.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $21.00 | 76 | $1,596.38 | $1,617.65 |
$-49.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 71 | $1,615.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.99 | 71 | $1,561.29 | $1,563.34 |
$-54.31 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $22.69 | 68 | $1,542.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.91 | 68 | $1,489.88 | $1,510.31 |
$-53.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $22.95 | 65 | $1,491.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 65 | $1,574.30 | $1,592.86 |
+$82.55 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.58 | 64 | $1,573.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:30pm ET | $25.85 | 64 | $1,654.40 | $1,674.14 |
+$81.28 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $27.41 | 61 | $1,672.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.00 | 61 | $1,769.00 | $1,771.13 |
+$96.99 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.83 | 63 | $1,752.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.35 | 63 | $1,849.05 | $1,867.20 |
+$96.07 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $29.10 | 64 | $1,862.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 64 | $1,696.64 | $1,701.44 |
$-165.76 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $28.63 | 59 | $1,689.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $27.66 | 59 | $1,631.65 | $1,643.92 |
$-57.52 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $27.29 | 60 | $1,637.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.28 | 60 | $1,576.80 | $1,583.09 |
$-60.83 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$1,583.09
Net Profit/Loss:
$-8,416.91
Total Return:
-84.17%