TQQQ Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 41 trades in period
-5.12%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,755.97
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$10,282.58
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
6
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
6.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.9
30-Day Momentum
53
+14.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.1
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+47 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,656
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,282.58
Current Value
$9,755.97
Period P&L
$-526.61
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
16 /
25
Best Trade
+7.05%
Worst Trade
-5.80%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$790,995.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-526.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-526.61
Gross Return
-5.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,282.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:30pm ET | $57.12 | 181 | $10,338.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 9:55am ET | $55.12 | 181 | $9,976.27 | $9,993.43 |
$-362.05 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $51.94 | 192 | $9,971.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 11:45am ET | $50.36 | 192 | $9,668.16 | $9,690.07 |
$-303.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 11:45am ET | $54.91 | 176 | $9,664.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $53.25 | 176 | $9,371.12 | $9,396.53 |
$-293.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 3:40pm ET | $52.39 | 179 | $9,377.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:30pm ET | $50.67 | 179 | $9,070.14 | $9,088.87 |
$-307.67 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 3:45pm ET | $49.41 | 183 | $9,041.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $52.82 | 183 | $9,666.04 | $9,713.80 |
+$624.93 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $45.55 | 213 | $9,702.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm ET | $47.85 | 213 | $10,190.99 | $10,201.88 |
+$488.09 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $49.87 | 204 | $10,172.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.03 | 204 | $10,817.51 | $10,846.93 |
+$645.05 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:35am ET | $53.15 | 204 | $10,842.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 3:10pm ET | $55.84 | 204 | $11,390.34 | $11,394.67 |
+$547.74 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:15am ET | $55.97 | 203 | $11,361.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $54.27 | 203 | $11,016.81 | $11,049.57 |
$-345.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $54.63 | 202 | $11,035.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $52.60 | 202 | $10,625.20 | $10,639.51 |
$-410.06 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 12:30pm ET | $52.36 | 203 | $10,629.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $50.61 | 203 | $10,273.83 | $10,284.26 |
$-355.25 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET | $51.42 | 200 | $10,284.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $54.35 | 200 | $10,869.00 | $10,869.26 |
+$585.00 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:00pm ET | $54.64 | 198 | $10,818.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 3:20pm ET | $52.94 | 198 | $10,482.18 | $10,532.64 |
$-336.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $53.84 | 195 | $10,498.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.05 | 195 | $10,149.38 | $10,183.09 |
$-349.56 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.65 | 197 | $10,175.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $54.24 | 197 | $10,684.85 | $10,692.88 |
+$509.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:10pm ET | $55.31 | 193 | $10,674.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.63 | 193 | $10,349.63 | $10,367.68 |
$-325.21 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET | $54.54 | 190 | $10,361.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $52.75 | 190 | $10,022.50 | $10,028.53 |
$-339.15 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:45am ET | $49.47 | 202 | $9,992.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $47.83 | 202 | $9,661.66 | $9,697.25 |
$-331.28 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $51.87 | 186 | $9,647.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $51.92 | 186 | $9,657.25 | $9,706.68 |
+$9.43 (+0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.72 | 203 | $9,687.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $50.14 | 203 | $10,178.40 | $10,197.92 |
+$491.24 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 1:00pm ET | $48.33 | 211 | $10,197.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.99 | 211 | $10,759.94 | $10,760.34 |
+$562.42 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.21 | 210 | $10,753.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $49.34 | 210 | $10,361.40 | $10,368.42 |
$-391.92 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $49.06 | 211 | $10,352.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.47 | 211 | $10,016.38 | $10,032.09 |
$-336.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.80 | 214 | $10,015.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.16 | 214 | $10,520.24 | $10,537.13 |
+$505.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.11 | 210 | $10,523.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $48.56 | 210 | $10,197.60 | $10,211.63 |
$-325.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $47.65 | 214 | $10,197.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.91 | 214 | $9,824.74 | $9,839.27 |
$-372.36 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $49.76 | 197 | $9,803.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.17 | 197 | $9,490.47 | $9,526.04 |
$-313.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $46.96 | 202 | $9,485.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 202 | $9,039.50 | $9,079.62 |
$-446.42 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $44.73 | 202 | $9,035.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:25pm ET | $43.22 | 202 | $8,731.45 | $8,775.61 |
$-304.01 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.83 | 195 | $8,741.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $43.31 | 195 | $8,446.42 | $8,480.17 |
$-295.44 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $44.20 | 191 | $8,442.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $42.82 | 191 | $8,178.62 | $8,216.59 |
$-263.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $40.22 | 204 | $8,203.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $39.01 | 204 | $7,957.02 | $7,969.75 |
$-246.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $38.16 | 208 | $7,937.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $40.85 | 208 | $8,496.80 | $8,529.27 |
+$559.52 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.54 | 195 | $8,491.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 195 | $7,998.90 | $8,036.90 |
$-492.37 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $43.69 | 183 | $7,995.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $42.33 | 183 | $7,746.37 | $7,787.98 |
$-248.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.81 | 162 | $7,745.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.22 | 162 | $8,134.83 | $8,177.61 |
+$389.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $54.13 | 151 | $8,174.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $56.86 | 151 | $8,585.86 | $8,589.09 |
+$411.48 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $58.24 | 147 | $8,561.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.36 | 147 | $9,019.92 | $9,047.51 |
+$458.42 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $62.30 | 145 | $9,033.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.99 | 145 | $8,699.27 | $8,713.28 |
$-334.23 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $60.71 | 143 | $8,681.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $63.88 | 143 | $9,134.84 | $9,166.60 |
+$453.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $64.87 | 141 | $9,146.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.05 | 141 | $9,736.05 | $9,755.97 |
+$589.37 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,755.97
Net Profit/Loss:
$-244.03
Total Return:
-2.44%