TSLA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 31 trades in period
+24.60%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,224.28
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$12,218.92
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
27
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.4/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
27.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 27.3
30-Day Momentum
57
+16.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 77.0
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,633
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,218.92
Current Value
$15,224.28
Period P&L
$3,005.33
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
15 /
16
Best Trade
+7.35%
Worst Trade
-4.47%
Avg Trade Return
+0.88%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$813,330.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,005.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,005.33
Gross Return
+24.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+24.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,218.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2025 12:00pm ET | $452.80 | 26 | $11,772.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:35am ET | $437.87 | 26 | $11,384.52 | $11,606.54 |
$-388.28 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 11:35am ET | $426.09 | 27 | $11,504.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 11:05am ET | $448.06 | 27 | $12,097.62 | $12,199.73 |
+$593.19 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 11:05am ET | $434.03 | 28 | $12,152.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:35am ET | $420.07 | 28 | $11,761.96 | $11,808.85 |
$-390.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:45pm ET | $405.59 | 29 | $11,762.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $426.90 | 29 | $12,380.10 | $12,426.84 |
+$617.99 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:40am ET | $387.52 | 32 | $12,400.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $409.39 | 32 | $13,100.48 | $13,126.58 |
+$699.74 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $410.64 | 31 | $12,729.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $432.08 | 31 | $13,394.48 | $13,791.22 |
+$664.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 1:50pm ET | $427.86 | 32 | $13,691.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $449.91 | 32 | $14,397.18 | $14,496.88 |
+$705.66 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:55am ET | $455.04 | 31 | $14,106.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:50am ET | $441.36 | 31 | $13,682.16 | $14,072.96 |
$-423.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 2:00pm ET | $448.61 | 31 | $13,906.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $474.97 | 31 | $14,724.07 | $14,890.05 |
+$817.10 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $467.17 | 31 | $14,482.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 3:50pm ET | $490.71 | 31 | $15,212.01 | $15,619.79 |
+$729.74 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 2:30pm ET | $483.91 | 32 | $15,485.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $463.85 | 32 | $14,843.16 | $14,977.84 |
$-641.96 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $456.39 | 32 | $14,604.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $441.60 | 32 | $14,131.20 | $14,504.56 |
$-473.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $454.55 | 31 | $14,091.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.93 | 31 | $13,637.83 | $14,051.34 |
$-453.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $434.79 | 32 | $13,913.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $421.21 | 32 | $13,478.72 | $13,616.94 |
$-434.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $432.11 | 31 | $13,395.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $418.69 | 31 | $12,979.24 | $13,200.70 |
$-416.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:55am ET | $434.81 | 30 | $13,044.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 30 | $12,460.80 | $12,617.20 |
$-583.50 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $418.36 | 30 | $12,550.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $405.00 | 30 | $12,150.00 | $12,216.40 |
$-400.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $395.85 | 30 | $11,875.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $416.30 | 30 | $12,489.00 | $12,830.05 |
+$613.65 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.86 | 31 | $12,798.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $400.38 | 31 | $12,411.78 | $12,443.17 |
$-386.88 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $403.17 | 30 | $12,095.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.92 | 30 | $11,727.60 | $12,075.56 |
$-367.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $393.62 | 30 | $11,808.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $414.78 | 30 | $12,443.40 | $12,710.36 |
+$634.80 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $401.10 | 31 | $12,434.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $386.00 | 31 | $11,966.00 | $12,242.26 |
$-468.10 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $374.24 | 32 | $11,975.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 32 | $12,608.00 | $12,874.58 |
+$632.32 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.83 | 33 | $12,567.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 33 | $12,161.32 | $12,468.68 |
$-405.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $359.92 | 34 | $12,237.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.69 | 34 | $12,875.46 | $13,106.69 |
+$638.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 35 | $12,753.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $353.29 | 35 | $12,365.15 | $12,718.20 |
$-388.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $338.92 | 37 | $12,540.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 37 | $13,462.08 | $13,640.24 |
+$922.04 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $344.43 | 39 | $13,432.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $361.87 | 39 | $14,113.00 | $14,320.47 |
+$680.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $387.96 | 36 | $13,966.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $408.67 | 36 | $14,712.17 | $15,066.20 |
+$745.73 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $388.60 | 38 | $14,766.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 38 | $14,200.22 | $14,499.62 |
$-566.58 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $373.80 | 38 | $14,204.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.88 | 38 | $14,929.25 | $15,224.28 |
+$724.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,224.28
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,224.28
Total Return:
+52.24%