Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:08:06

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.2/35
Total Return
13.1/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.5/10
Raw Quality 40.0/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,611
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,052.65
Current Value
$13,672.53
Period P&L
$-380.12
Max Drawdown
-11.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
5 / 6
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.15%
Avg Hold Time
14.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$309,286.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-380.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$-380.12
Gross Return
-2.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,052.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 3:05pm ET $52.43 266 $13,946.38
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $53.05 266 $14,111.30 $14,156.40 +$164.92
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 2:25pm ET $53.25 265 $14,109.93
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:15pm ET $51.64 265 $13,684.60 $13,731.08 $-425.32
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:15am ET $51.34 267 $13,706.45
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET $53.91 267 $14,392.64 $14,417.27 +$686.19
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
16d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 10:05am ET $53.53 269 $14,398.23
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:20am ET $56.21 269 $15,119.44 $15,138.48 +$721.22
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $56.06 270 $15,134.85
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:10am ET $54.34 270 $14,671.80 $14,675.43 $-463.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET $53.76 272 $14,622.72
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $53.94 272 $14,671.68 $14,724.39 +$48.96
(+0.3%)
📅 Sim Ended
26.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET $51.99 283 $14,714.58
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET $50.38 283 $14,256.13 $14,265.93 $-458.46
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET $52.18 273 $14,245.14
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $50.35 273 $13,745.55 $13,766.34 $-499.59
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET $51.24 268 $13,730.98
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $49.66 268 $13,308.88 $13,344.24 $-422.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $49.81 267 $13,297.94
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $48.28 267 $12,892.09 $12,938.40 $-405.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET $48.48 266 $12,895.68
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $51.24 266 $13,629.81 $13,672.53 +$734.13
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,672.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,672.53
Total Return: +36.73%
Back to Marcus Reversal