SHIBUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Era 2: Dec 18, 2025 to 2026-02-15 04:45:00+00 • 49 trades (1 prior era crashed)
Data Transparency
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Era 2)
Trade Statistics (Era 2)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Era 2)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2025 | $98.62 | 796 | $15,208.30 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time (Era 2)
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay (Era 2)
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🔄 Era 2 Trade History (Current) (since refund on Dec 18, 2025 - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,098.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET | $0.00000721 | 1,400,640,214 | $10,098.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.00000758 | 1,400,640,214 | $10,616.85 | $10,565.06 |
+$466.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:40pm ET | $0.00000748 | 1,412,441,731 | $10,565.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 21, 2025 8:30am ET | $0.00000725 | 1,412,441,731 | $10,240.20 | $10,188.19 |
$-376.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 21, 2025 8:35am ET | $0.00000725 | 1,405,267,501 | $10,188.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 9:45pm ET | $0.00000703 | 1,405,267,501 | $9,879.03 | $9,828.86 |
$-359.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:50pm ET | $0.00000705 | 1,394,164,891 | $9,828.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 28, 2025 6:45pm ET | $0.00000741 | 1,394,164,891 | $10,330.76 | $10,280.36 |
+$451.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 28, 2025 11:45pm ET | $0.00000750 | 1,370,715,038 | $10,280.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 12:25pm ET | $0.00000727 | 1,370,715,038 | $9,965.10 | $9,914.48 |
$-365.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 1:55pm ET | $0.00000725 | 1,367,515,127 | $9,914.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.00000702 | 1,367,515,127 | $9,599.96 | $9,551.17 |
$-363.31 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00000700 | 1,364,452,870 | $9,551.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $0.00000738 | 1,364,452,870 | $10,069.66 | $10,020.61 |
+$469.44 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 1, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000739 | 1,355,968,891 | $10,020.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 7:55am ET | $0.00000776 | 1,355,968,891 | $10,522.32 | $10,470.96 |
+$450.35 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $0.00000812 | 1,289,527,250 | $10,470.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2026 2:25am ET | $0.00000787 | 1,289,527,250 | $10,148.58 | $10,097.03 |
$-373.93 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 3, 2026 2:30am ET | $0.00000786 | 1,284,609,492 | $10,097.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2026 9:15pm ET | $0.00000827 | 1,284,609,492 | $10,623.72 | $10,571.92 |
+$474.89 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 8:25am ET | $0.00000877 | 1,205,463,925 | $10,571.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000924 | 1,205,463,925 | $11,138.49 | $11,084.21 |
+$512.29 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $0.00000908 | 1,220,728,045 | $11,084.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 11:20pm ET | $0.00000879 | 1,220,728,045 | $10,730.20 | $10,675.66 |
$-408.55 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 11:25pm ET | $0.00000876 | 1,218,683,047 | $10,675.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000928 | 1,218,683,047 | $11,309.38 | $11,254.42 |
+$578.75 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000940 | 1,197,278,305 | $11,254.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $0.00000906 | 1,197,278,305 | $10,847.34 | $10,792.09 |
$-462.33 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $0.00000906 | 1,191,179,586 | $10,792.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $0.00000878 | 1,191,179,586 | $10,458.56 | $10,405.43 |
$-386.66 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000881 | 1,181,093,094 | $10,405.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 7:35am ET | $0.00000854 | 1,181,093,094 | $10,086.54 | $10,035.31 |
$-370.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:25am ET | $0.00000849 | 1,182,014,736 | $10,035.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 5:05pm ET | $0.00000897 | 1,182,014,736 | $10,602.67 | $10,551.08 |
+$515.77 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 6:35pm ET | $0.00000895 | 1,178,891,312 | $10,551.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 6:05am ET | $0.00000868 | 1,178,891,312 | $10,232.78 | $10,180.82 |
$-370.26 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 6:10am ET | $0.00000866 | 1,175,613,967 | $10,180.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000835 | 1,175,613,967 | $9,816.38 | $9,766.38 |
$-414.43 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.00000836 | 1,168,227,708 | $9,766.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 6:55pm ET | $0.00000810 | 1,168,227,708 | $9,462.64 | $9,414.57 |
$-351.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $0.00000789 | 1,193,228,373 | $9,414.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET | $0.00000765 | 1,193,228,373 | $9,128.20 | $9,081.84 |
$-332.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:20pm ET | $0.00000791 | 1,148,146,667 | $9,081.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000767 | 1,148,146,667 | $8,806.28 | $8,761.56 |
$-320.28 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $0.00000772 | 1,134,917,697 | $8,761.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 4:15pm ET | $0.00000814 | 1,134,917,697 | $9,238.23 | $9,193.23 |
+$431.67 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000804 | 1,143,436,637 | $9,193.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $0.00000776 | 1,143,436,637 | $8,873.07 | $8,827.90 |
$-365.33 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000778 | 1,134,691,846 | $8,827.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000752 | 1,134,691,846 | $8,532.88 | $8,489.48 |
$-338.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $0.00000752 | 1,128,920,308 | $8,489.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000727 | 1,128,920,308 | $8,207.25 | $8,165.51 |
$-323.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000723 | 1,129,392,643 | $8,165.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 3:35am ET | $0.00000700 | 1,129,392,643 | $7,905.75 | $7,865.57 |
$-299.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 3:40am ET | $0.00000699 | 1,125,260,423 | $7,865.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000675 | 1,125,260,423 | $7,595.51 | $7,556.86 |
$-308.72 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $0.00000671 | 1,126,207,923 | $7,556.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.00000650 | 1,126,207,923 | $7,320.35 | $7,283.16 |
$-273.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $0.00000641 | 1,136,218,172 | $7,283.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 6:15pm ET | $0.00000674 | 1,136,218,172 | $7,658.11 | $7,620.76 |
+$337.60 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 8:20pm ET | $0.00000675 | 1,129,001,082 | $7,620.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 6:05pm ET | $0.00000651 | 1,129,001,082 | $7,349.80 | $7,312.37 |
$-308.39 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:05pm ET | $0.00000668 | 1,094,666,267 | $7,312.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:35pm ET | $0.00000647 | 1,094,666,267 | $7,082.49 | $7,046.50 |
$-265.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:40pm ET | $0.00000648 | 1,087,423,394 | $7,046.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 8:55am ET | $0.00000682 | 1,087,423,394 | $7,416.23 | $7,380.07 |
+$333.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000694 | 1,063,410,766 | $7,380.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000673 | 1,063,410,766 | $7,156.75 | $7,120.41 |
$-259.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000672 | 1,059,585,178 | $7,120.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $0.00000650 | 1,059,585,178 | $6,887.30 | $6,852.28 |
$-268.13 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $0.00000649 | 1,055,821,936 | $6,852.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.00000690 | 1,055,821,936 | $7,285.17 | $7,249.83 |
+$397.54 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 4:45pm ET | $0.00000683 | 1,061,468,187 | $7,249.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.00000661 | 1,061,468,187 | $7,016.30 | $6,980.64 |
$-269.19 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 4:05pm ET | $0.00000663 | 1,052,886,785 | $6,980.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:55am ET | $0.00000642 | 1,052,886,785 | $6,759.53 | $6,725.18 |
$-255.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 5:35am ET | $0.00000638 | 1,054,103,876 | $6,725.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000618 | 1,054,103,876 | $6,514.36 | $6,481.26 |
$-243.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000604 | 1,073,056,804 | $6,481.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $0.00000585 | 1,073,056,804 | $6,277.38 | $6,245.49 |
$-235.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $0.00000587 | 1,063,966,897 | $6,245.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $0.00000566 | 1,063,966,897 | $6,022.05 | $5,991.38 |
$-254.10 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.00000564 | 1,062,302,091 | $5,991.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000522 | 1,062,302,091 | $5,545.22 | $5,516.38 |
$-475.01 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000510 | 1,081,642,238 | $5,516.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000547 | 1,081,642,238 | $5,916.58 | $5,888.00 |
+$371.63 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $0.00000585 | 1,006,495,837 | $5,888.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000615 | 1,006,495,837 | $6,189.95 | $6,159.75 |
+$271.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000625 | 985,560,723 | $6,159.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:30am ET | $0.00000606 | 985,560,723 | $5,972.50 | $5,942.17 |
$-217.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:35am ET | $0.00000608 | 977,330,157 | $5,942.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000639 | 977,330,157 | $6,245.14 | $6,214.67 |
+$272.50 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $0.00000631 | 984,892,462 | $6,214.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000612 | 984,892,462 | $6,027.54 | $5,996.94 |
$-217.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000608 | 986,338,213 | $5,996.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $0.00000605 | 986,338,213 | $5,967.35 | $5,937.44 |
$-59.50 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET | $0.00000603 | 984,650,083 | $5,937.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.00000584 | 984,650,083 | $5,750.36 | $5,750.36 |
$-216.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)