VTI Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-02 18:45:00+00 to 2026-05-07 19:55:00+00 • 38 trades executed
+36.22%
2 Years Return
$14,538.83
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$10,673.11
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.36%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.9/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
9.7/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
7.4/10
Raw Quality
46.2/100
× Confidence 0.80
= 37.0
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
49,767
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-08 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
531 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,673.11
Current Value
$14,538.83
Total P&L
$3,865.69
Max Drawdown
-16.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
34
Winners / Losers
22 /
12
Best Trade
+7.19%
Worst Trade
-5.56%
Avg Trade Return
+1.07%
Avg Hold Time
19.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$817,995.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,865.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,865.69
Gross Return
+36.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+36.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 531 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,673.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 18, 2024 12:30pm ET | $248.28 | 41 | $10,179.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2024 9:30am ET | $261.16 | 41 | $10,707.56 | $10,916.25 |
+$528.08 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
26.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2024 12:40pm ET | $262.80 | 41 | $10,774.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $266.32 | 41 | $10,919.12 | $11,060.57 |
+$144.32 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2024 12:05pm ET | $269.25 | 41 | $11,039.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2024 9:30am ET | $272.87 | 41 | $11,187.67 | $11,208.99 |
+$148.42 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2024 12:20pm ET | $274.24 | 40 | $10,969.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2024 9:30am ET | $263.40 | 40 | $10,536.00 | $10,775.40 |
$-433.60 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $252.12 | 42 | $10,589.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2024 9:30am ET | $264.80 | 42 | $11,121.60 | $11,307.95 |
+$532.56 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2024 3:50pm ET | $272.17 | 41 | $11,158.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $276.96 | 41 | $11,355.36 | $11,504.34 |
+$196.39 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.7d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2024 11:55am ET | $279.06 | 41 | $11,441.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 11:55am ET | $288.82 | 41 | $11,841.62 | $11,904.71 |
+$400.36 (+3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 18, 2024 3:25pm ET | $288.81 | 41 | $11,841.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2024 9:30am ET | $290.28 | 41 | $11,901.48 | $11,965.18 |
+$60.47 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $289.94 | 41 | $11,887.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:30am ET | $293.57 | 41 | $12,036.17 | $12,113.81 |
+$148.63 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 9:30am ET | $289.11 | 41 | $11,853.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $298.04 | 41 | $12,219.64 | $12,479.94 |
+$366.13 (+3.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2025 3:55pm ET | $300.57 | 41 | $12,323.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $295.93 | 41 | $12,133.13 | $12,289.70 |
$-190.24 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2025 3:55pm ET | $294.43 | 41 | $12,071.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $284.64 | 41 | $11,670.34 | $11,888.41 |
$-401.29 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $284.52 | 41 | $11,665.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:30pm ET | $275.97 | 41 | $11,314.57 | $11,537.48 |
$-350.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2025 1:30pm ET | $271.81 | 42 | $11,416.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $256.70 | 42 | $10,781.19 | $10,902.65 |
$-634.83 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $239.35 | 45 | $10,770.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET | $252.54 | 45 | $11,364.32 | $11,496.22 |
+$593.57 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:05am ET | $254.04 | 45 | $11,431.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 1:30pm ET | $246.33 | 45 | $11,084.85 | $11,149.48 |
$-346.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $259.05 | 43 | $11,139.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:25pm ET | $250.91 | 43 | $10,789.04 | $10,799.28 |
$-350.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 11:45am ET | $262.43 | 41 | $10,759.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 9:55am ET | $254.41 | 41 | $10,430.81 | $10,470.47 |
$-328.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 1:20pm ET | $257.30 | 40 | $10,291.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 25, 2025 1:05pm ET | $270.23 | 40 | $10,809.28 | $10,987.95 |
+$517.48 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $268.64 | 40 | $10,745.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $285.76 | 40 | $11,430.40 | $11,672.92 |
+$684.97 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 2:40pm ET | $289.65 | 40 | $11,586.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2025 2:40pm ET | $296.65 | 40 | $11,866.00 | $11,952.92 |
+$280.00 (+2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 2:40pm ET | $293.26 | 40 | $11,730.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 10:40am ET | $308.02 | 40 | $12,320.80 | $12,543.32 |
+$590.40 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 2:20pm ET | $304.56 | 41 | $12,486.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 2:20pm ET | $311.23 | 41 | $12,760.47 | $12,816.83 |
+$273.51 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 8, 2025 11:35am ET | $312.16 | 41 | $12,798.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $320.33 | 41 | $13,133.53 | $13,151.80 |
+$334.97 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $319.68 | 41 | $13,106.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 9, 2025 10:35am ET | $330.41 | 41 | $13,546.81 | $13,591.73 |
+$439.93 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $329.59 | 41 | $13,513.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $333.46 | 41 | $13,671.84 | $13,750.38 |
+$158.65 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $334.30 | 41 | $13,706.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $323.78 | 41 | $13,274.98 | $13,319.06 |
$-431.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $325.11 | 40 | $13,004.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $335.74 | 40 | $13,429.60 | $13,744.26 |
+$425.20 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET | $337.37 | 40 | $13,494.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $336.61 | 40 | $13,464.58 | $13,714.04 |
$-30.22 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $340.86 | 40 | $13,634.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $342.92 | 40 | $13,717.00 | $13,796.64 |
+$82.60 (+0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
18d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $334.45 | 41 | $13,712.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.86 | 41 | $13,237.26 | $13,321.65 |
$-474.99 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
29.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $323.90 | 41 | $13,279.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $314.14 | 41 | $12,879.54 | $12,921.29 |
$-400.36 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $311.81 | 41 | $12,784.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.23 | 41 | $13,703.52 | $13,840.60 |
+$919.31 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $334.99 | 41 | $13,734.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $352.02 | 41 | $14,432.82 | $14,538.83 |
+$698.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,538.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,538.83
Total Return:
+45.39%