ARM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
+33.03%
Year to Date Return
$16,457.34
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$12,370.82
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.2/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.7
30-Day Momentum
34
+11.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.0
Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,452
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,370.82
Current Value
$16,457.34
Period P&L
$4,086.52
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
14 /
16
Best Trade
+9.37%
Worst Trade
-7.54%
Avg Trade Return
+1.05%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$897,848.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,086.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,086.52
Gross Return
+33.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+33.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,370.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:20am ET | $110.82 | 113 | $12,522.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.26 | 113 | $13,588.82 | $13,598.55 |
+$1,066.16 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $115.87 | 117 | $13,556.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $111.55 | 117 | $13,051.35 | $13,093.11 |
$-505.44 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $109.55 | 119 | $13,036.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $106.21 | 119 | $12,638.40 | $12,695.06 |
$-398.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $103.49 | 122 | $12,625.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $108.73 | 122 | $13,264.52 | $13,334.41 |
+$639.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $113.27 | 117 | $13,252.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.96 | 117 | $14,152.32 | $14,234.14 |
+$899.73 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.30 | 122 | $14,188.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.69 | 122 | $13,626.18 | $13,671.72 |
$-562.42 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $107.15 | 127 | $13,608.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $103.79 | 127 | $13,180.70 | $13,244.37 |
$-427.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $103.93 | 127 | $13,199.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $109.60 | 127 | $13,919.20 | $13,964.46 |
+$720.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.23 | 117 | $13,949.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $124.78 | 117 | $14,599.26 | $14,613.78 |
+$649.33 (+4.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $121.94 | 119 | $14,510.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.42 | 119 | $15,281.98 | $15,384.90 |
+$771.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.56 | 123 | $15,321.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $131.38 | 123 | $16,159.74 | $16,223.34 |
+$838.44 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:25pm ET | $132.26 | 122 | $16,136.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $127.75 | 122 | $15,585.50 | $15,672.51 |
$-550.83 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $126.62 | 123 | $15,574.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $122.79 | 123 | $15,103.17 | $15,201.42 |
$-471.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $124.43 | 122 | $15,180.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $120.40 | 122 | $14,688.80 | $14,709.76 |
$-491.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $115.98 | 126 | $14,613.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.43 | 126 | $14,165.55 | $14,261.82 |
$-447.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $121.50 | 117 | $14,215.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $117.81 | 117 | $13,783.77 | $13,830.09 |
$-431.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $115.74 | 119 | $13,773.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $121.72 | 119 | $14,484.68 | $14,541.73 |
+$711.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $127.40 | 114 | $14,523.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 114 | $15,712.62 | $15,730.75 |
+$1,189.02 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $135.65 | 115 | $15,599.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 115 | $17,060.82 | $17,191.83 |
+$1,461.08 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $159.32 | 107 | $17,047.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.31 | 107 | $15,762.17 | $15,906.76 |
$-1,285.07 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.43 | 111 | $15,810.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $137.87 | 111 | $15,303.85 | $15,400.32 |
$-506.44 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.40 | 99 | $15,384.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.71 | 99 | $14,722.78 | $14,738.51 |
$-661.81 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $148.72 | 99 | $14,723.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.04 | 99 | $14,260.45 | $14,275.68 |
$-462.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.95 | 97 | $14,253.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 97 | $15,176.62 | $15,198.63 |
+$922.95 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $159.77 | 95 | $15,178.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.86 | 95 | $15,946.70 | $15,967.18 |
+$768.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $174.41 | 91 | $15,871.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $183.20 | 91 | $16,671.20 | $16,767.07 |
+$799.89 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $203.38 | 82 | $16,677.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 82 | $18,199.20 | $18,288.80 |
+$1,521.73 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 81 | $18,183.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 81 | $17,601.30 | $17,706.41 |
$-582.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $201.94 | 87 | $17,568.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.24 | 87 | $16,899.31 | $17,036.94 |
$-669.47 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $210.94 | 80 | $16,875.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $203.70 | 80 | $16,295.60 | $16,457.34 |
$-579.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,457.34
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,457.34
Total Return:
+64.57%