AVAXUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 22, 2025 | $98.64 | 682 | $8,684.67 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $2,971.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 3:40pm ET | $12.40 | 242 | $2,995.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $13.06 | 242 | $3,155.57 | $3,140.19 |
+$144.32 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 1, 2026 11:45pm ET | $13.56 | 232 | $3,140.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.13 | 232 | $3,040.61 | $3,025.16 |
$-115.03 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.21 | 229 | $3,025.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 5:00pm ET | $13.91 | 229 | $3,185.46 | $3,169.94 |
+$144.78 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 6:10pm ET | $13.79 | 230 | $3,169.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 8:50pm ET | $14.49 | 230 | $3,331.54 | $3,315.28 |
+$145.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 11:30pm ET | $14.13 | 235 | $3,315.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 5:00am ET | $13.70 | 235 | $3,215.30 | $3,198.98 |
$-116.31 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 5:15am ET | $13.75 | 233 | $3,198.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $14.45 | 233 | $3,361.83 | $3,345.43 |
+$146.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 7:10pm ET | $14.74 | 227 | $3,345.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:15pm ET | $14.27 | 227 | $3,238.76 | $3,222.30 |
$-123.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:20pm ET | $14.27 | 226 | $3,222.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.83 | 226 | $3,122.94 | $3,107.08 |
$-115.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $13.87 | 224 | $3,107.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.41 | 224 | $3,004.03 | $2,988.76 |
$-118.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $13.40 | 223 | $2,988.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 18, 2026 6:55pm ET | $12.98 | 223 | $2,895.08 | $2,880.37 |
$-108.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET | $12.66 | 228 | $2,880.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $12.27 | 228 | $2,791.64 | $2,777.46 |
$-102.91 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $12.19 | 228 | $2,777.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $11.82 | 228 | $2,693.15 | $2,679.48 |
$-97.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $11.69 | 229 | $2,679.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 2:50pm ET | $11.28 | 229 | $2,585.50 | $2,572.34 |
$-107.14 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 2:55pm ET | $11.30 | 228 | $2,572.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.88 | 228 | $2,704.37 | $2,691.18 |
+$118.84 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:05pm ET | $11.69 | 230 | $2,691.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.27 | 230 | $2,594.49 | $2,581.27 |
$-109.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $11.16 | 231 | $2,581.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.82 | 231 | $2,502.63 | $2,489.92 |
$-91.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:55pm ET | $10.81 | 230 | $2,489.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 3:45am ET | $10.46 | 230 | $2,409.31 | $2,397.06 |
$-92.87 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 8:30am ET | $10.45 | 229 | $2,397.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET | $10.08 | 229 | $2,312.19 | $2,300.41 |
$-96.65 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.10 | 228 | $2,300.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.76 | 228 | $2,222.97 | $2,211.67 |
$-88.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.79 | 226 | $2,211.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $10.28 | 226 | $2,322.36 | $2,311.03 |
+$99.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $10.20 | 227 | $2,311.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.88 | 227 | $2,238.52 | $2,227.15 |
$-83.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.85 | 226 | $2,227.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $9.55 | 226 | $2,159.32 | $2,148.35 |
$-78.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $9.54 | 225 | $2,148.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.05 | 225 | $2,263.20 | $2,252.17 |
+$103.82 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 4:45pm ET | $10.08 | 223 | $2,252.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.72 | 223 | $2,171.74 | $2,160.68 |
$-91.49 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $9.62 | 225 | $2,160.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 6:10am ET | $9.30 | 225 | $2,088.80 | $2,078.18 |
$-82.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:15am ET | $9.29 | 224 | $2,078.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.98 | 224 | $2,008.83 | $1,998.62 |
$-79.56 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.88 | 225 | $1,998.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $8.52 | 225 | $1,917.59 | $1,907.80 |
$-90.82 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $8.44 | 226 | $1,907.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 226 | $1,831.67 | $1,822.33 |
$-85.47 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 234 | $1,822.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $8.23 | 234 | $1,926.72 | $1,917.35 |
+$95.03 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10pm ET | $8.25 | 232 | $1,917.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.67 | 232 | $2,014.96 | $2,005.13 |
+$87.78 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:10pm ET | $9.23 | 217 | $2,005.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.94 | 217 | $1,942.13 | $1,932.26 |
$-72.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $8.93 | 216 | $1,932.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $8.92 | 216 | $1,930.40 | $1,920.74 |
$-11.53 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET | $8.90 | 216 | $1,920.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:10am ET | $8.60 | 216 | $1,856.44 | $1,856.44 |
$-73.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 11:35am ET | $9.09 | 204 | $1,856.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 5:15pm ET | $8.81 | 204 | $1,799.85 | $1,799.85 |
$-65.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 5:30pm ET | $8.82 | 204 | $1,799.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 4:05am ET | $9.27 | 204 | $1,891.68 | $1,891.68 |
+$82.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 6:10am ET | $9.19 | 206 | $1,891.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 7:40am ET | $8.91 | 206 | $1,834.04 | $1,834.04 |
$-66.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 7:45am ET | $8.94 | 205 | $1,834.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $8.51 | 205 | $1,745.83 | $1,745.83 |
$-97.16 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:15pm ET | $8.52 | 205 | $1,745.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:20pm ET | $8.26 | 205 | $1,692.55 | $1,692.55 |
$-61.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:30am ET | $8.22 | 206 | $1,692.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:35pm ET | $8.64 | 206 | $1,779.03 | $1,779.03 |
+$77.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:20pm ET | $8.56 | 208 | $1,779.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:10am ET | $9.02 | 208 | $1,874.63 | $1,874.63 |
+$86.47 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $9.60 | 195 | $1,874.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 5:50am ET | $9.29 | 195 | $1,814.10 | $1,814.10 |
$-69.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 6:00am ET | $9.29 | 195 | $1,814.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $9.01 | 195 | $1,759.42 | $1,759.42 |
$-63.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 6:50am ET | $9.03 | 195 | $1,759.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:30am ET | $8.73 | 195 | $1,700.97 | $1,700.97 |
$-67.10 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $8.66 | 196 | $1,700.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $9.11 | 196 | $1,789.36 | $1,789.36 |
+$79.66 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 6:45pm ET | $9.14 | 196 | $1,789.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $8.84 | 196 | $1,730.63 | $1,730.63 |
$-67.53 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $8.86 | 195 | $1,730.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $9.32 | 195 | $1,820.48 | $1,820.48 |
+$80.97 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $9.24 | 197 | $1,820.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 5:20am ET | $8.96 | 197 | $1,765.31 | $1,765.31 |
$-64.13 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.5h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 5:45am ET | $8.96 | 197 | $1,765.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:20am ET | $9.41 | 197 | $1,853.97 | $1,853.97 |
+$79.61 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)