Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.5 neutral
20d Trend
-0.6%
5d Trend
+4.3%
EMA20 Dist
+4.6%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

33
+8.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.7 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
6,727
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
86 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$6,539.28
Current Value
$6,483.07
Period P&L
$-56.25
Max Drawdown
-46.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
6 / 7
Best Trade
+5.90%
Worst Trade
-4.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
7.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$165,462.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-56.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-56.25
Gross Return
-0.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BIIB Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 86 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,539.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET $171.53 37 $6,346.43
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:40am ET $180.27 37 $6,669.99 $6,719.51 +$323.57
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:15pm ET $184.77 36 $6,651.72
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $179.03 36 $6,445.08 $6,512.87 $-206.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:45pm ET $168.61 38 $6,407.18
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $160.94 38 $6,115.72 $6,221.41 $-291.46
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $169.21 36 $6,091.56
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET $177.83 36 $6,401.88 $6,531.73 +$310.32
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 1:00pm ET $178.58 36 $6,428.88
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $187.51 36 $6,750.36 $6,853.21 +$321.48
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $193.08 35 $6,757.80
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $193.67 35 $6,778.45 $6,873.86 +$20.65
(+0.3%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET $196.17 35 $6,865.95
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $190.28 35 $6,659.80 $6,667.71 $-206.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:05am ET $189.17 35 $6,620.95
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:40am ET $182.54 35 $6,388.90 $6,435.66 $-232.05
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET $184.53 34 $6,274.02
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET $177.20 34 $6,024.63 $6,186.27 $-249.39
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
27d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:40am ET $182.09 33 $6,008.81
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:25pm ET $176.57 33 $5,826.81 $6,004.28 $-181.99
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $173.40 34 $5,895.60
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET $182.62 34 $6,209.22 $6,317.90 +$313.62
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET $185.57 34 $6,309.38
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 2:40pm ET $179.96 34 $6,118.64 $6,127.16 $-190.74
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 2:45pm ET $182.71 33 $6,029.59
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:15am ET $193.50 33 $6,385.50 $6,483.07 +$355.91
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,483.07
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,516.93
Total Return: -35.17%
Back to Marcus Reversal