BTCUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
-22.61%
Year to Date Return
$3,779.39
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$4,407.25
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
4.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.7
30-Day Momentum
72
+23.1%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 85.8
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+68 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,197
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$4,407.25
Current Value
$3,779.39
Period P&L
$-996.32
Max Drawdown
-78.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
16 /
27
Best Trade
+5.58%
Worst Trade
-3.66%
Avg Trade Return
-0.03%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$299,183.93
Estimated Fees
$747.96
Gross P&L
$-996.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,744.28
Gross Return
-22.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-39.58%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $4,407.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $86,680.30 | 0 | $4,363.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2026 7:05pm ET | $91,203.00 | 0 | $4,591.17 | $4,568.78 |
+$205.29 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 2:20am ET | $91,230.00 | 0 | $4,568.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 6:00pm ET | $95,818.20 | 0 | $4,798.56 | $4,775.14 |
+$206.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.7d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:00am ET | $95,089.00 | 0 | $4,775.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 19, 2026 11:40pm ET | $92,211.00 | 0 | $4,630.61 | $4,607.10 |
$-168.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 19, 2026 11:55pm ET | $92,065.00 | 0 | $4,607.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $89,289.00 | 0 | $4,468.18 | $4,445.49 |
$-161.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET | $88,221.00 | 0 | $4,445.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $85,205.19 | 0 | $4,293.52 | $4,271.68 |
$-173.82 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $85,378.93 | 0 | $4,271.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 8:35pm ET | $82,769.77 | 0 | $4,141.14 | $4,120.10 |
$-151.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 8:40pm ET | $81,899.82 | 0 | $4,120.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 12:05pm ET | $79,357.65 | 0 | $3,992.22 | $3,971.93 |
$-148.17 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET | $78,722.21 | 0 | $3,971.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 6:05pm ET | $75,923.85 | 0 | $3,830.74 | $3,811.24 |
$-160.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 9:30pm ET | $76,826.75 | 0 | $3,811.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $74,012.30 | 0 | $3,671.62 | $3,652.91 |
$-158.33 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $74,158.07 | 0 | $3,652.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:45pm ET | $71,746.89 | 0 | $3,534.14 | $3,516.17 |
$-136.74 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:45pm ET | $71,324.00 | 0 | $3,516.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20am ET | $69,076.00 | 0 | $3,405.35 | $3,388.04 |
$-128.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $67,872.75 | 0 | $3,388.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $65,677.00 | 0 | $3,278.44 | $3,261.77 |
$-126.27 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $65,466.00 | 0 | $3,261.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $63,136.26 | 0 | $3,145.69 | $3,129.68 |
$-132.10 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $62,412.00 | 0 | $3,129.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $60,285.00 | 0 | $3,023.02 | $3,007.63 |
$-122.04 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $60,008.81 | 0 | $3,007.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $63,112.00 | 0 | $3,163.17 | $3,147.74 |
+$140.10 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:50pm ET | $63,864.96 | 0 | $3,147.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:15am ET | $67,144.00 | 0 | $3,309.35 | $3,293.21 |
+$145.47 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 7:00pm ET | $70,206.90 | 0 | $3,293.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $67,902.55 | 0 | $3,185.12 | $3,168.93 |
$-124.29 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $67,760.46 | 0 | $3,168.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 7:55am ET | $71,189.87 | 0 | $3,329.31 | $3,313.06 |
+$144.14 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $70,359.01 | 0 | $3,313.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $69,331.97 | 0 | $3,264.70 | $3,248.26 |
$-64.81 (-1.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:45am ET | $69,234.61 | 0 | $3,248.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:05am ET | $67,074.91 | 0 | $3,146.93 | $3,146.93 |
$-117.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $67,933.64 | 0 | $3,146.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET | $65,770.50 | 0 | $3,046.73 | $3,046.73 |
$-115.69 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 8:55am ET | $65,967.30 | 0 | $3,046.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $63,946.40 | 0 | $2,953.39 | $2,953.39 |
$-108.34 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $64,000.10 | 0 | $2,953.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:35am ET | $67,300.00 | 0 | $3,105.67 | $3,105.67 |
+$137.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:45pm ET | $68,906.30 | 0 | $3,105.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $66,816.30 | 0 | $3,011.47 | $3,011.47 |
$-109.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $66,601.30 | 0 | $3,011.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:30am ET | $64,548.80 | 0 | $2,918.66 | $2,918.66 |
$-107.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $64,100.10 | 0 | $2,918.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 5:40pm ET | $67,531.80 | 0 | $3,074.92 | $3,074.92 |
+$141.27 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 6:45pm ET | $66,897.00 | 0 | $3,074.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET | $70,626.90 | 0 | $3,246.36 | $3,246.36 |
+$155.64 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 7:20am ET | $70,782.00 | 0 | $3,246.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $68,642.10 | 0 | $3,148.22 | $3,148.22 |
$-114.13 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $68,740.30 | 0 | $3,148.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2026 11:50pm ET | $66,630.70 | 0 | $3,051.60 | $3,051.60 |
$-112.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 7, 2026 11:55pm ET | $66,639.00 | 0 | $3,051.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:30pm ET | $69,992.10 | 0 | $3,205.15 | $3,205.15 |
+$137.91 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:50pm ET | $69,508.70 | 0 | $3,205.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:15am ET | $73,257.40 | 0 | $3,378.00 | $3,378.00 |
+$156.40 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $72,399.60 | 0 | $3,378.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:10am ET | $70,017.80 | 0 | $3,266.88 | $3,266.88 |
$-127.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 7:20am ET | $70,782.00 | 0 | $3,246.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 4:30am ET | $68,618.10 | 0 | $3,147.11 | $3,167.63 |
$-115.23 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:35am ET | $68,617.20 | 0 | $3,167.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 7:00am ET | $66,494.30 | 0 | $3,069.63 | $3,069.63 |
$-113.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 7:05am ET | $66,412.50 | 0 | $3,069.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 5:20am ET | $69,920.30 | 0 | $3,231.76 | $3,231.76 |
+$146.38 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 7:45am ET | $69,652.70 | 0 | $3,231.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $73,286.20 | 0 | $3,400.35 | $3,400.35 |
+$152.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $72,772.80 | 0 | $3,400.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 12, 2026 7:35pm ET | $70,576.40 | 0 | $3,297.72 | $3,297.72 |
$-119.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:35am ET | $70,799.80 | 0 | $3,297.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:50pm ET | $74,352.90 | 0 | $3,463.22 | $3,463.22 |
+$148.59 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 8:15pm ET | $74,349.90 | 0 | $3,463.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $78,210.90 | 0 | $3,643.07 | $3,643.07 |
+$162.08 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $77,217.40 | 0 | $3,643.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $74,815.40 | 0 | $3,529.74 | $3,529.75 |
$-131.26 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 2:00pm ET | $74,824.00 | 0 | $3,529.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $78,632.40 | 0 | $3,709.41 | $3,709.41 |
+$161.56 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:45pm ET | $78,837.20 | 0 | $3,709.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 7:15am ET | $76,450.00 | 0 | $3,597.09 | $3,597.09 |
$-130.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 7:35am ET | $76,284.50 | 0 | $3,597.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 3, 2026 10:45pm ET | $80,150.50 | 0 | $3,779.39 | $3,779.39 |
+$163.85 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,779.39
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,220.61
Total Return:
-62.21%