COIN Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 38 trades in period
-16.63%
Year to Date Return
$7,528.16
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$9,030.25
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 5.2
30-Day Momentum
9
-11.7%
30d Return
27%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,385
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,030.25
Current Value
$7,528.16
Period P&L
$-1,502.04
Max Drawdown
-53.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
13 /
25
Best Trade
+10.45%
Worst Trade
-5.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$626,706.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,502.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,502.04
Gross Return
-16.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,030.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $256.13 | 35 | $8,964.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $248.23 | 35 | $8,687.88 | $8,753.53 |
$-276.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $244.12 | 35 | $8,544.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $260.55 | 35 | $9,119.25 | $9,328.75 |
+$575.23 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $248.50 | 37 | $9,194.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:10pm ET | $240.90 | 37 | $8,913.25 | $9,047.50 |
$-281.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $241.27 | 37 | $8,926.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.88 | 37 | $8,579.67 | $8,700.18 |
$-347.32 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET | $224.42 | 38 | $8,527.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $217.11 | 38 | $8,250.18 | $8,422.40 |
$-277.78 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $213.59 | 39 | $8,330.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.46 | 39 | $7,974.02 | $8,066.41 |
$-355.99 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $195.11 | 41 | $7,999.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.19 | 41 | $7,756.79 | $7,823.69 |
$-242.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.02 | 42 | $7,812.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $180.36 | 42 | $7,575.12 | $7,585.97 |
$-237.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $168.84 | 44 | $7,429.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.93 | 44 | $7,169.14 | $7,325.99 |
$-259.98 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $161.00 | 45 | $7,245.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $167.24 | 45 | $7,525.80 | $7,606.79 |
+$280.80 (+3.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $162.56 | 46 | $7,477.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.73 | 46 | $7,163.58 | $7,292.61 |
$-314.18 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.49 | 44 | $7,149.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $171.54 | 44 | $7,547.98 | $7,691.03 |
+$398.42 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $163.44 | 47 | $7,681.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $172.16 | 47 | $8,091.52 | $8,100.87 |
+$409.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $164.54 | 49 | $8,062.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:20pm ET | $159.58 | 49 | $7,819.42 | $7,857.83 |
$-243.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $159.74 | 49 | $7,827.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $171.76 | 49 | $8,416.24 | $8,447.05 |
+$589.22 (+7.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $180.95 | 46 | $8,323.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $173.63 | 46 | $7,986.98 | $8,110.33 |
$-336.72 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.18 | 45 | $7,973.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $195.70 | 45 | $8,806.50 | $8,943.73 |
+$833.40 (+10.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.02 | 43 | $8,858.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $197.60 | 43 | $8,496.80 | $8,581.67 |
$-362.06 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:50pm ET | $194.45 | 44 | $8,555.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.25 | 44 | $8,987.00 | $9,013.09 |
+$431.42 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $193.04 | 46 | $8,879.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.68 | 46 | $9,369.28 | $9,502.53 |
+$489.44 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $201.53 | 47 | $9,471.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $211.88 | 47 | $9,958.36 | $9,988.98 |
+$486.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $205.72 | 48 | $9,874.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $195.24 | 48 | $9,371.62 | $9,486.04 |
$-502.94 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $200.99 | 47 | $9,446.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $194.85 | 47 | $9,157.95 | $9,197.70 |
$-288.34 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $184.31 | 49 | $9,031.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.64 | 49 | $8,655.36 | $8,821.87 |
$-375.83 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.16 | 53 | $8,806.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $160.47 | 53 | $8,504.89 | $8,520.28 |
$-301.59 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $160.23 | 53 | $8,492.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $168.35 | 53 | $8,922.81 | $8,950.91 |
+$430.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $174.30 | 51 | $8,889.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.01 | 51 | $8,466.76 | $8,528.37 |
$-422.54 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $174.71 | 48 | $8,386.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $169.28 | 48 | $8,125.49 | $8,267.54 |
$-260.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $180.04 | 45 | $8,102.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $174.50 | 45 | $7,852.50 | $8,018.02 |
$-249.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:55pm ET | $168.88 | 47 | $7,937.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $163.36 | 47 | $7,677.92 | $7,758.35 |
$-259.67 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $171.35 | 45 | $7,710.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.26 | 45 | $8,111.70 | $8,159.30 |
+$400.95 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $189.72 | 43 | $8,157.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $199.77 | 43 | $8,590.11 | $8,591.45 |
+$432.15 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $211.07 | 40 | $8,443.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.56 | 40 | $8,022.44 | $8,170.89 |
$-420.56 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $206.15 | 39 | $8,040.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $199.67 | 39 | $7,787.13 | $7,917.97 |
$-252.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $204.94 | 38 | $7,787.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $198.24 | 38 | $7,532.93 | $7,663.18 |
$-254.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.07 | 38 | $7,564.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.43 | 38 | $7,236.34 | $7,334.86 |
$-328.32 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.15 | 39 | $7,298.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $179.84 | 39 | $7,013.76 | $7,049.93 |
$-284.93 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $186.48 | 37 | $6,899.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.40 | 37 | $7,377.98 | $7,528.16 |
+$478.23 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,528.16
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,471.84
Total Return:
-24.72%