Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:11:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.5%
ATR%
1.0%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
9.4/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 25.5/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 19.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,450
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,411.56
Current Value
$11,260.78
Period P&L
$-150.78
Max Drawdown
-20.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
3 / 3
Best Trade
+5.00%
Worst Trade
-3.26%
Avg Trade Return
-0.36%
Avg Hold Time
17.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$132,902.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-150.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-150.78
Gross Return
-1.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,411.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $486.17 23 $11,181.91
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $490.35 23 $11,277.94 $11,626.49 +$96.03
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET $494.13 23 $11,364.99
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $501.33 23 $11,530.59 $11,792.09 +$165.60
(+1.5%)
📅 Sim Ended
27.3d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $495.95 23 $11,406.85
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $480.27 23 $11,046.21 $11,431.45 $-360.64
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET $484.78 23 $11,149.94
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $469.92 23 $10,808.16 $11,089.67 $-341.78
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET $475.34 23 $10,932.82
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $459.83 23 $10,576.20 $10,733.05 $-356.62
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $458.67 23 $10,549.41
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $481.61 23 $11,077.14 $11,260.78 +$527.73
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,260.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,260.78
Total Return: +12.61%
Back to Marcus Reversal