Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:03:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.2%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,325
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,314.16
Current Value
$8,703.82
Period P&L
$-1,610.35
Max Drawdown
-19.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.44

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
3 / 9
Best Trade
+5.21%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
-1.45%
Avg Hold Time
9.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$231,098.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,610.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,610.35
Gross Return
-15.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,314.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 1:50pm ET $347.04 29 $10,064.16
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 9:55am ET $365.11 29 $10,588.05 $10,912.29 +$523.89
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET $374.69 29 $10,865.87
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $381.28 29 $11,057.12 $11,103.54 +$191.25
(+1.8%)
📅 Sim Ended
28.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $387.42 28 $10,847.76
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET $375.37 28 $10,510.36 $10,766.14 $-337.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $387.52 27 $10,463.04
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 10:00am ET $374.10 27 $10,100.70 $10,403.80 $-362.34
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET $376.38 27 $10,162.26
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $362.99 27 $9,800.73 $10,042.27 $-361.53
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET $363.35 27 $9,810.32
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $350.36 27 $9,459.63 $9,691.58 $-350.69
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:55pm ET $358.27 27 $9,673.29
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $346.21 27 $9,347.67 $9,365.96 $-325.62
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $338.36 27 $9,135.72
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET $327.79 27 $8,850.33 $9,080.57 $-285.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $325.53 27 $8,789.31
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $315.74 27 $8,524.98 $8,816.24 $-264.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $335.02 26 $8,710.65
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $352.00 26 $9,152.00 $9,257.59 +$441.35
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:45am ET $340.91 27 $9,204.57
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET $330.61 27 $8,926.34 $8,979.36 $-278.23
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET $320.92 27 $8,664.71
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:45am ET $310.71 27 $8,389.17 $8,703.82 $-275.54
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,703.82
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,296.18
Total Return: -12.96%
Back to Marcus Reversal